
TB
2-1

JAX
2-1
NFL · Drive chart
23 drives · 1 TD · 1 FG · 1 Fum · 3 Downs · 14 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · JAX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(JAX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
TB · top performer

Jalon Daniels
· #10
8/15
C/A
0
TD
0
INT
JAX · top performer

Carter Bradley
· #10
8/15
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
Biggest swing: 13pp · —
NFL · Box scoreNGS
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/15 | 57 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2/4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12/21 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 21 | 0 | 9 | |
| 5 | 15 | 0 | 8 | |
| 2 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 5 | |
| Team | 19 | 56 | 0 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 24 | 0 | 13 | |
| 1 | 18 | 0 | 18 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Team | 12 | 64 | 0 | 18 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 74 | 50 | 4 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 18 | 12 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 18 | 12 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 487 | 48.7 | 2 | |
| Team | 10 | 487 | 48.7 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/15 | 77 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5/7 | 62 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7/9 | 57 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 20/31 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 44 | 0 | 12 | |
| 15 | 34 | 0 | 14 | |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 86 | 0 | 14 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 47 | 0 | 34 | |
| 3 | 47 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3 | 36 | 0 | 23 | |
| 3 | 19 | 0 | 11 | |
| 2 | 17 | 0 | 12 | |
| 2 | 12 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 20 | 196 | 1 | 34 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 51 | 23 | 5 | 5 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 123 | 63 | 1 | |
| 3 | 29 | 15 | 0 | |
| Team | 8 | 152 | 63 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1 | 61 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Team | 1/1 | 61 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 246 | 49.2 | 3 | |
| Team | 5 | 246 | 49.2 | 3 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
87
Total yds
249
56
Rush yds
86
1
TO
0
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
JAX
Home
87
Total yards
249
56
Rushing yds
86
1
Turnovers
0
5-31
totalPenaltiesYards
4-40
25:05
possessionTime
34:55
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -3.5
Half-pt above key 3
Total
35.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
5· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
JAX beat TB 19-0. Carter Bradley led the way — 8/15 · 77 YDS · 1 TD · 90.1 QBR. JAX outscored the other side 8-0 in the 3rd quarter.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAX | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
Betting line
TB -3.5·O/U 35.5·TB -170/JAX +140
Recap · NFL
acksonville Jaguars held off Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 19–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
JAX +3.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 35.5 by 16.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
35.5
0.0 since open
Win probability
JAX vs TB
Period scoring
TB won 0 · JAX won 3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Play-by-play · 162 plays
−3pp
−2pp
+1pp
+4pp
−0.9pp
+4pp
−0.8pp
−2pp
−3pp
BIG MOMENT
+9pp
−2pp
−1pp
−5pp
+1pp
−2pp
+3pp
−0.7pp
−4pp
+1pp
−3pp
+2pp
+3pp
−1pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
TB
league avg
JAX
22.9
Pts / game
23.5
▶28.2
335
Yds / game
342
▶352
221
Pass yds / G
225
▶237
115
Rush yds / G
117
115
0.8
TO / G
0.9
0.9