MLBBot 2
BAL 0@ATH 0
+3.6pphigh
MLBTop 2
PHI 0@LAA 0
-1.2ppmedium
MLBBot 2
ARI 0@SF 1
+23.7ppmedium
WNBA7:43 - 2nd
TOR 20@PHX 30
+15.8ppmedium
NCAAF10:19 - 1st
MEM 0@UNLV 0
-2.3ppmedium
NCAAF2:19 - 4th
HAW 27@STAN 23
-30.0pphigh
TONIGHTGraded picks 9-6 so far (MLB 8-6, WNBA 1-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Wacha (KC): 8.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CLE — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 34 PTS · 5 REB · 12 AST in a win over CON
LAST NIGHT · NFLKyle McCord (GB): 226 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 4 RUSH YDS in a win over ARI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Sent LHP Justin Wrobleski on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Designated LHP Hoby Milner for assignment (Aug 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Designated RHP Shaun Anderson for assignment (Aug 29)
MLBBot 2
BAL 0@ATH 0
+3.6pphigh
MLBTop 2
PHI 0@LAA 0
-1.2ppmedium
MLBBot 2
ARI 0@SF 1
+23.7ppmedium
WNBA7:43 - 2nd
TOR 20@PHX 30
+15.8ppmedium
NCAAF10:19 - 1st
MEM 0@UNLV 0
-2.3ppmedium
NCAAF2:19 - 4th
HAW 27@STAN 23
-30.0pphigh
TONIGHTGraded picks 9-6 so far (MLB 8-6, WNBA 1-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Wacha (KC): 8.0 IP · 10 K in a win over CLE — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 34 PTS · 5 REB · 12 AST in a win over CON
LAST NIGHT · NFLKyle McCord (GB): 226 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 4 RUSH YDS in a win over ARI
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Sent LHP Justin Wrobleski on a rehab assignment to Oklahoma City (PCL) (Aug 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Designated LHP Hoby Milner for assignment (Aug 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Designated RHP Shaun Anderson for assignment (Aug 29)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
58,316 attended
FINAL+19JAX
TB

TB

2-1

0
19
JAX

JAX

2-1

NFL · Drive chart

23 drives · 1 TD · 1 FG · 1 Fum · 3 Downs · 14 Punt
  1. PuntTB5p · 15y
  2. PuntJAX8p · 49y
  3. PuntTB9p · 43y
  4. PuntJAX5p · 18y
  5. PuntTB3p · 1y
  6. FGJAX6p · 15y
  7. PuntTB3p
  8. PuntJAX5p · 16y
  9. FumTB1p · -1y
  10. DownsJAX4p · 4y
  11. PuntTB8p · 17y
  12. ½JAX2p · 10y
  13. PuntJAX3p · 4y
  14. PuntTB3p · -5y
  15. TDJAX14p · 74y
  16. PuntTB3p · -6y
  17. DownsJAX9p · 49y
  18. PuntTB3p · -3y
  19. PuntJAX4p · -27y
  20. PuntTB3p · -12y
  21. PuntTB3p · 7y
  22. DownsJAX7p · 20y
  23. EndTB1p · 9y

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Team pages

Tampa Bay BuccaneersatJacksonville Jaguars

Elsewhere in the NFL

  • Commanders3@Ravens41Final
  • Falcons17@Dolphins12Final
  • Texans13@Panthers16Final
  • Giants23@Jets6Final
  • Saints27@Cowboys24Final
  • Cardinals38@Packers42Final
  • Seahawks9@Chiefs9Final
  • Bengals30@Eagles13Final
  • Vikings6@Broncos34Final

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 72-36
64%Last 30 · 312-173
Receipts →

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · JAX favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Qb Elo

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Dvoa Proxy

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(JAX win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

NFL·Fri, Aug 28·Final/VegasTB -3.5

TB · top performer

TB
Jalon Daniels

Jalon Daniels

· #10

57Pass yds

8/15

C/A

0

TD

0

INT

JAX · top performer

JAX
Carter Bradley

Carter Bradley

· #10

77Pass yds

8/15

C/A

1

TD

0

INT

Game flowTB ↔ JAX

Biggest swing: 13pp · —

NFL · Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars · final

NFL · Box scoreNGS

Final

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jalon Daniels · #10
8/155700
Connor Bazelak · #16
2/2500
Jake Browning · #5
2/4200
Team12/213100

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Josh Williams · #18
82109
Sean Tucker · #44
51508
Barika Kpeenu · #49
21109
Jalon Daniels · #10
4905
Team195609

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Eric Rivers Jr. · #83
624013
Garrett Greene · #85
118018
Kameron Johnson · #19
112012
Tez Johnson · #15
1909
Dean Patterson · #8O
2202
Sean Tucker · #44
1-10-1
Team1264018

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jalon Daniels · #10
110
Team110

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Rashad Wisdom · #38
9600
Damarion Williams · #28
6501
Nick Jackson · #53
5200
Miles Killebrew · #29
4400
Caden Fordham · #46
4400
Ayden Garnes · #24
4400
Jack Pyburn · #58
4323
Roman Parodie · #37
4300
Yasir Holmes · #57
4301
John Bullock · #30
4100
Josiah Green · #96
3211
Robert McDaniel · #39D
3200
Javin Wright · #48
3100
Ifeatu Melifonwu · #35
2201
David Walker · #51
2100
Elijah Simmons · #92
2000
Elijah Roberts · #95
2000
Anthony Nelson · #98
1111
Riley Dixon · #9
1100
Mohamed Kamara · #59
1100
Jayson Jones · #93
1101
Travis Shaw · #71D
1100
Benjamin Morrison · #21
1100
Xavier Williams · #26D
1100
Scott Daly · #71S
1000
DeMonte Capehart · #90
1000
Team745049

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Kameron Johnson · #19
218120
Team218120

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Riley Dixon · #9
1048748.72
Team1048748.72

Passing

passing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Carter Bradley · #10
8/157710
Nick Mullens · #14
5/76200
Joey Aguilar · #17
7/95700
Team20/3116310

Rushing

rushing box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J'Mari Taylor · #30
1244012
DeeJay Dallas · #20
1534014
Carter Bradley · #10
2505
Trebor Pena · #86
1303
Joey Aguilar · #17
1000
Team3186014

Receiving

receiving box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Hunter Long · #84
247034
Michael Wortham · #0
347021
Austin Trammell · #81
336023
Trebor Pena · #86
319011
Chandler Brayboy · #15
217012
Patrick Herbert · #88
212010
J'Mari Taylor · #30
1707
DeeJay Dallas · #20
2514
Brady Boyd · #83
1404
Quintin Morris · #80
1202
Team20196134

Fumbles

fumbles box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Joey Aguilar · #17
101
Wesley Williams · #90
001
Team102

Defense

defensive box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Jalen McLeod · #35
7101
Bryan Thomas Jr. · #57
532.52
Baylon Spector · #31
4400
Jahlani Tavai · #32
4100
Jalen Hunt · #96
3300
Jabbar Muhammad · #37
3200
T.J. Bollers · #94
311.50
Preston Hodge · #26
3101
Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig · #42
2200
Amari Burney · #49
2111
Christian Braswell · #21
2100
Wesley Williams · #90
2100
Rayuan Lane III · #25
2100
Jalen Huskey · #22
2100
Devin Neal Jr. · #36
2000
Corey Ballentine · #38
1000
Quindarius Dunnigan · #59
1000
Ruke Orhorhoro · #99
1000
Trevian Thomas · #34
1000
Tommy Akingbesote · #74
1000
Team512355

Kick Returns

kickReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Chandler Brayboy · #15
124240
Team124240

Punt Returns

puntReturns box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Michael Wortham · #0
5123631
Trebor Pena · #86
329150
Team8152631

Kicking

kicking box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Cam Little · #39
1/1610/03
Team1/1610/03

Punting

punting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Logan Cooke · #9
524649.23
Team524649.23

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

87

Total yds

249

56

Rush yds

86

1

TO

0

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

JAX

Home

87

Total yards

249

56

Rushing yds

86

1

Turnovers

0

5-31

totalPenaltiesYards

4-40

25:05

possessionTime

34:55

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -3.5

Half-pt above key 3

Total

35.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

↘1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

TBTB-17063%
JAXJAX+14042%

↘5· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -3.5↗SpreadBet TB -3.5↗

How it ended

JAX beat TB 19-0. Carter Bradley led the way — 8/15 · 77 YDS · 1 TD · 90.1 QBR. JAX outscored the other side 8-0 in the 3rd quarter.

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
TB00000
JAX038819

Betting line

TB -3.5·O/U 35.5·TB -170/JAX +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars held off Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 19–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

JAX +3.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 35.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

35.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

JAX vs TB

0255075100

Period scoring

TB won 0 · JAX won 3

0
0

Q1

0
3

Q2

0
8

Q3

0
8

Q4

TB
JAX

Play-by-play · 162 plays

event
  1. —

  2. —

    −3pp

  3. —

    −2pp

  4. —

  5. —

    +1pp

  6. —

  7. —

    +4pp

  8. —

    −0.9pp

  9. —

  10. —

    +4pp

  11. —

    −0.8pp

  12. —

    −2pp

  13. —

    −3pp

  14. —

    BIG MOMENT

    +9pp

  15. —

    −2pp

  16. —

    −1pp

  17. —

    −5pp

  18. —

    +1pp

  19. —

  20. —

    −2pp

  21. —

    +3pp

  22. —

    −0.7pp

  23. —

    −4pp

  24. —

    +1pp

  25. —

    −3pp

  26. —

    +2pp

  27. —

  28. —

    +3pp

  29. —

    −1pp

  30. —

Team rate stats · season-to-date

Tale of the tape

nflverse · weekly aggregates

TB

TB

league avg

JAX

JAX

22.9

Pts / game

23.5

▶

28.2

335

Yds / game

342

▶

352

221

Pass yds / G

225

▶

237

115

Rush yds / G

117

115

0.8

TO / G

◀

0.9

0.9