Recent form
8-2
CLE +2.3 vs KC +2.2 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
KC
KC
59-75
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
68-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael Wacha
SP · #52
7-8
W-L
3.49
ERA
1.13
WHIP
126
K
162.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDETW(7-8)7.0 IP1 ER6 K
vsATHW(6-8)5.0 IP4 ER3 K
@LAD-6.2 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Tanner Bibee
SP · #28
5-13
W-L
3.97
ERA
1.14
WHIP
123
K
156.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@COLW(5-13)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsSDL(4-13)6.0 IP3 ER3 K
@DETL(4-12)6.1 IP5 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCLE wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs KC.
CLE enters on a 7-game win streak; KC is 9-1 over its last 10.
60.0%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE8–2+2.3
- KC9–1+2.2
Situational
- CLE2d rest
- KC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 6 straight road games; KC has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.7strikeouts · ±2.0
Joey Cantillo · 5.7 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 5.3.
- Parker MessickCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.9
Parker Messick · 5.4 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.0%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
59.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.6%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 111 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2± 3.2high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.7± 2.0high
- Parker MessickCLE5.4± 2.9high
Hits
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.3± 1.2high
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 1.5high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Chase DeLauterCLE2.0± 2.5high
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC2.0± 2.6high
- Vinnie PasquantinoKC2.0± 2.2high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE1.1± 1.9high
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.7± 1.6high
- Jose RamirezCLE0.6± 1.6high
Earned runs
- Seth LugoKC3.1± 1.9high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.8± 1.5high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.6± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
CLE
.713
OPS
◀
.719
.686
.315
OBP
.318
.315
4.22
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.05
4.70
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.73
1.40
WHIP
1.30
▶1.26
7.5
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28KC
Royals
71-83
vs60.1%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
88-72
KC 39.9%win prob60.1% CLE
CLE 1536 · KC 1493Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsCubs8/28 - 2:20 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/28 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/28 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- MarinersBlue Jays8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/28 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/28 - 8:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/28 - 8:15 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/28 - 9:38 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/28 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/28 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
