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THE ONE Analytics
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NFL·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

NFL pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

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LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
LAST NIGHT · MLBY. Diaz (HOU): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over TEX
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -6.5
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Stewart (CIN): 2 H · 1 HR · 4 RBI in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER in a win over STL
LAST NIGHT · MLBY. Diaz (HOU): 4 H · 1 HR · 1 RBI in a win over TEX
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANets: Signed F Moritz Wagner to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBAWarriors: Re-signed G De'Anthony Melton to a contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · NBANuggets: Signed F Spencer Jones to a contract (Jul 31)
TONIGHT · WNBALV @ CHI, 8/1 - 1:00 PM EDT — LV -6.5

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 57-38
60%Last 30 · 249-167
Receipts →

Tonight · 0 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →

No NFL games on the board today. The model is resting too — check back tomorrow.

← Back to NFL hub

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in nfl

Top 5

  1. 1SEA

    Seahawks

    36-18

    1654Elo
  2. 2BUF

    Bills

    40-18

    1607Elo
  3. 3DEN

    Broncos

    33-21

    1604Elo
  4. 4LAR

    Rams

    35-22

    1598Elo
  5. 5HOU

    Texans

    35-22

    1593Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1TEN

    Titans

    12-39

    1353Elo
  2. 2LV

    Raiders

    15-36

    1357Elo
  3. 3NYJ

    Jets

    15-36

    1363Elo
  4. 4ARI

    Cardinals

    15-36

    1382Elo
  5. 5NYG

    Giants

    13-38

    1391Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

Same Elo skeleton for every league: K-factor tuned to the schedule density, league-specific home advantage, off-season regression to the mean. NFL ratings update after every final score and feed straight into the win-probability column you see above.

Full methodology →