Recent form
7-3
NYY +1.7 vs BOS +1.5 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS
BOS
73-60
PregameFri, 7:15 PM EDTApple TV
NYY
NYY
75-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Patrick Sandoval
SP · #43
1-2
W-L
4.54
ERA
1.76
WHIP
41
K
39.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSF-5.2 IP2 ER6 K
@PITL(1-2)4.0 IP7 ER6 K
@TORL(1-1)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Cam Schlittler
SP · #31
11-6
W-L
2.16
ERA
0.96
WHIP
193
K
158.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTORW(11-6)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
@TOR-5.1 IP1 ER7 K
vsATL-7.0 IP1 ER11 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesNYY win series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs BOS.
NYY is 7-3 recently; BOS is 7-3.
51.8%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY7–3+1.7
- BOS7–3+1.5
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; BOS has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.5strikeouts · ±2.1
Sonny Gray · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.8%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
48.5%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.2%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.70 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.8± 2.3medium
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.1high
- Nick SogardBOS1.1± 0.9high
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Mickey GasperBOS2.3± 2.6high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.0± 2.9high
- Nick SogardBOS1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Mickey GasperBOS1.0± 0.9high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.7± 1.1high
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Will WarrenNYY2.6± 2.3high
- Patrick SandovalBOS2.5± 2.9low
- Jake BennettBOS2.3± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
NYY
.729
OPS
◀
.719
.720
.324
OBP
◀
.318
.311
4.51
Runs / G
4.50
4.51
3.47
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.23
1.22
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 28BOS
Red Sox
83-74
vs51.7%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
86-69
BOS 48.3%win prob51.7% NYY
NYY 1538 · BOS 1572Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
