Recent form
6-4
LAD +0.8 vs DET -1.5 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
LAD
LAD
80-54
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
DET
DET
62-71
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketComerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Line movement
200 snapshots
DET spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
DET no-vig %
34.0%
open 34.4% · -0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tarik Skubal
SP · #29
8-7
W-L
2.91
ERA
0.95
WHIP
146
K
120.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPITW(8-7)7.0 IP3 ER11 K
vsMILL(7-7)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
vsKC-5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Home starter
Drew Anderson
RP · #38
4-5
W-L
4.09
ERA
1.29
WHIP
91
K
81.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@KCL(4-5)5.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsCHW-5.0 IP3 ER5 K
vsCLE-4.0 IP1 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money-223 / +181
Model edge
Win prob61% / 39%
LeanAway · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take LAD on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
DET vs LAD.
DET is 2-8 recently; LAD is 6-4.
38.6%
model · DET win prob
Recent form
- DET2–8-1.5
- LAD6–4+0.8
Situational
- DET2d rest
- LAD1d restB2B
- +1.0d differential
DET has 1 more rest day. DET has 0 straight road games; LAD has 3.
Model angle
+4.7ppon DET
DET's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+0.9pp
- ▲Travel burden+0.8pp
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.4.
- Framber ValdezDET3.9strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 3.9 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 4.3.
Line move
open +178→+181toward LAD
The market has moved 0.4pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
37.8%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
42.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.7%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.68 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.7± 2.4high
- Tyler GlasnowLAD7.0± 3.1low
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.6± 2.3high
Hits
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.2± 1.0high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.0± 0.9high
- Kevin McGonigleDET1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.2± 3.1high
- Max MuncyLAD1.9± 2.2high
- Eduardo ValenciaDET1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Brett CallahanDET0.7± 1.2low
- Kevin McGonigleDET0.7± 1.1high
- Max MuncyLAD0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Framber ValdezDET2.9± 1.9high
- Eric LauerLAD2.5± 1.9high
- Jackson JobeDET2.0± 3.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
DET
.759
OPS
◀
.719
.717
.335
OBP
◀
.318
.316
4.93
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.45
3.67
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.60
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.22
9.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28LAD★
Dodgers
95-68
vs61.3%LAD
DET
Tigers
65-86
LAD 61.3%win prob38.7% DET
LAD 1549 · DET 1474Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
