Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
SD
SD
72-62
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
79-54
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Casey Mize
SP · #32
5-7
W-L
3.44
ERA
1.09
WHIP
95
K
104.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIN-2.2 IP4 ER0 K
@CLEW(5-7)6.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsMIL-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
Home starter
Shane McClanahan
SP · #18
9-6
W-L
3.10
ERA
1.12
WHIP
99
K
107.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-5.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsBAL-3.1 IP3 ER3 K
vsTEX-3.0 IP1 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/28
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs SD.
TB is 5-5 recently; SD is 6-4.
59.8%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB5–5-0.5
- SD6–4+1.9
Situational
- TB2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 6 straight road games; SD has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Ian SeymourTB5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.3 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 3.1.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.5.
- Michael KingSD5.1strikeouts · ±1.2
Michael King · 5.1 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.9%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
58.7%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.9%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 120 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ian SeymourTB5.3± 2.8high
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2± 3.1high
- Michael KingSD5.1± 1.2high
Hits
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.4high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.2± 0.8high
- Yandy DiazTB1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.5± 3.4high
- Liam HicksTB1.8± 2.2high
- Yandy DiazTB1.8± 1.6high
RBIs
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD0.9± 1.4high
- Kenny PiperTB0.7± 1.6low
- Luis CampusanoSD0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.3± 2.5high
- Walker BuehlerSD2.9± 2.7high
- Casey MizeSD2.3± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
TB
.703
OPS
.719
▶.731
.315
OBP
.318
▶.329
4.25
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.47
3.94
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.78
1.29
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
8.2
K / 9
8.5
8.2
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28SD
Padres
81-74
vs59.8%TB
TB★
Rays
107-54
SD 40.2%win prob59.8% TB
TB 1573 · SD 1536Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
