Recent form
5-5
CHW -0.3 vs MIN -1.0 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
CHW
CHW
70-63
PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
64-70
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Luis Castillo
SP · #58
4-10
W-L
5.19
ERA
1.42
WHIP
105
K
118.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYML(4-10)2.2 IP4 ER3 K
@CHC-4.2 IP3 ER1 K
vsCINW(4-9)7.0 IP0 ER10 K
Home starter
Dean Kremer
SP · #13
2-4
W-L
5.22
ERA
1.18
WHIP
58
K
58.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SD-5.1 IP2 ER5 K
vsPHI-5.1 IP4 ER6 K
vsBALW(2-4)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob47% / 53%
LeanHome · 3pp
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 4-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs CHW.
MIN is 4-6 recently; CHW is 5-5.
53.2%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN4–6-1.0
- CHW5–5-0.3
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 6 straight road games; CHW has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Sean Burke · 6.7 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.1.
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±3.0
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.5.
- Anthony KayCHW4.2strikeouts · ±1.4
Anthony Kay · 4.2 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.7%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
49.2%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.28 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 110 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7± 3.1high
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 3.0high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.8± 2.5medium
Hits
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.4± 1.4medium
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.2± 0.8high
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 0.6high
Total bases
- Tristan PetersCHW2.0± 2.5high
- Miguel VargasCHW1.9± 1.8high
- Brooks LeeMIN1.9± 2.2high
RBIs
- Kody ClemensMIN0.8± 1.1high
- Josh BellMIN0.7± 1.1high
- Randal GrichukCHW0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Connor PrielippMIN3.4± 2.4medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.2± 3.2low
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.1± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
MIN
.731
OPS
.719
.724
.320
OBP
.318
.319
4.82
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.59
4.16
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.69
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.39
8.5
K / 9
8.5
8.5
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 28CHW
White Sox
86-70
vs53.3%MIN
MIN★
Twins
86-76
CHW 46.7%win prob53.3% MIN
MIN 1497 · CHW 1526Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
