Recent form
5-5
TOR +0.5 vs SEA -3.3 margin
TOR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
SEA
SEA
64-70
PregameFri, 7:15 PM EDTApple TV
TOR
TOR
65-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Emerson Hancock
SP · #26
7-7
W-L
3.37
ERA
1.12
WHIP
125
K
133.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHC-5.2 IP3 ER6 K
@HOUW(7-7)7.0 IP2 ER8 K
vsTBL(6-7)4.2 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Dylan Cease
SP · #84
8-5
W-L
2.37
ERA
1.06
WHIP
209
K
144.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYYW(8-5)6.2 IP1 ER8 K
vsNYY-6.1 IP2 ER10 K
vsBOS-5.0 IP3 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TOR vs SEA.
TOR is 5-5 recently; SEA is 6-4.
57.4%
model · TOR win prob
Recent form
- TOR5–5+0.5
- SEA6–4-3.3
Situational
- TOR2d rest
- SEA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TOR has 0 straight road games; SEA has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.5.
- Logan GilbertSEA6.2strikeouts · ±1.7
Logan Gilbert · 6.2 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.2.
- Bryan WooSEA5.8strikeouts · ±1.6
Bryan Woo · 5.8 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 5.7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.6%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
51.7%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.49 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Logan GilbertSEA6.2± 1.7high
- Bryan WooSEA5.8± 1.6high
Hits
- Brett BatemanTOR1.5± 1.4medium
- Josh NaylorSEA1.3± 1.1high
- Alejandro KirkTOR1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Cal RaleighSEA2.0± 3.8high
- Alejandro KirkTOR2.0± 2.5high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA1.9± 3.2high
RBIs
- Cal RaleighSEA0.8± 1.4high
- Alejandro KirkTOR0.8± 1.1high
- Dominic CanzoneSEA0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.5± 3.8low
- Spencer ArrighettiTOR3.5± 2.9medium
- Bryce MillerSEA3.2± 2.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SEA
league avg
TOR
.684
OPS
.719
.685
.309
OBP
.318
.306
3.93
Runs / G
4.50
3.93
4.10
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.94
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.8
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 28SEA
Mariners
75-86
vs57.4%TOR
TOR★
Blue Jays
69-98
SEA 42.6%win prob57.4% TOR
TOR 1470 · SEA 1482Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RedsCubs8/28 - 2:20 PM EDT
- DodgersTigers8/28 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/28 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosMets8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RoyalsGuardians8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- PadresRays8/28 - 7:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxYankees8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RockiesBraves8/28 - 7:15 PM EDT
- RangersBrewers8/28 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxTwins8/28 - 8:10 PM EDT
- PiratesCardinals8/28 - 8:15 PM EDT
- PhilliesAngels8/28 - 9:38 PM EDT
- OriolesAthletics8/28 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksGiants8/28 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
