Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever
CON
2-15
IND
9-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Indiana Fever Friday at 8/28 - 7:30 PM EDT. IND is 6-3 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
IND
Home
42
FG %
46
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
IND85@CON75CON@INDupcomingCON@INDtodayScouting report
CON @ IND
Tale of the tape
3-15
Record
10-7
#7
Conf rank
#3
-8.4
Pt diff
+3.2
W1
Streak
W1
2-8
Last 10
6-4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 35 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND20.4± 9.1medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND20.4± 4.2high
- Aliyah BostonIND16.7± 8.3medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.8± 5.3medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.9± 2.0medium
- Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON5.4± 5.7medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.8± 3.1medium
- Leila LacanCON4.4± 2.9low
- Saniya RiversCON3.2± 1.9high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 1.7low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.5± 1.4medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.8± 1.5low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.1± 0.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
IND
42.6%
FG%
44.7
▶46.4%
26.0%
3PT %
33.5
▶34.8%
79.2
PPG
85.9
▶92.4
18.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.9
13.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.5