Recent form
6-4
IND +3.9 vs CON -10.8 margin
IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever
CON
CON
10-28
PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION
IND
IND
25-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Indiana Fever Friday at 8/28 - 7:30 PM EDT. IND is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
Vegas opened IND as a 17.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. IND's moneyline implies a 95% break-even, CON the inverse. IND comes in with 3 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 150 over 6.2h14m ago
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
IND
Home
42
FG %
49
Season series
IND leads series 2-0
Jun 13IND85@CON75
IND85@CON75Jul 23CON88@IND123
CON88@IND123Aug 28CON@INDtoday
CON@INDtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -17.5
Between 10 and —
1.0pt· 6.2h
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
CON+10009%IND-180095%150· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
17.5
+1.0 since open
Total
178.5
-4.0 since open
Scouting report
CON @ IND
Rest going in
IND +3 days
CONStandard
1 day
last game Aug 26
INDLong rest
4 days
last game Aug 23
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
IND -17.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
178.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
IND -1800
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
CONmetricIND
10-28
Record
25-14
#7
Conf rank
#2
-8.1
Pt diff
+5.7
L1
Streak
W1
3-7
Last 10
6-4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
IND -17.5·O/U 178.5·CON +1000/IND -1800
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
IND vs CON.
IND is 6-4 recently; CON is 3-7.
95.2%
model · IND win prob
Recent form
- IND6–4+3.9
- CON3–7-10.8
Situational
- IND5d rest
- CON2d rest
- +3.0d differential
IND has 3 more rest days. IND has 5 straight road games; CON has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.7points · ±5.4
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.7 pts · last-10 28.4 vs season 24.2.
- Caitlin ClarkIND22.6points · ±7.1
Caitlin Clark · 22.6 pts · last-10 23.4 vs season 21.3.
- Aliyah BostonIND16.6points · ±3.1
Aliyah Boston · 16.6 pts · last-10 16.8 vs season 16.2.
Head-to-head · 4-0 · last 4
IND is 4-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-16IND @ CON85–77
- 2025-08-17IND @ CON99–93
- 2026-06-13IND @ CON85–75
- 2026-07-22CON @ IND88–123
Line move
open -1600→-1800toward IND
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
95.0%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
88.8%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
87.7%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
89.4%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.69 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-0.85
CLV pp
Open price
+900
Close price
+1000
Open no-vig
9.6%
Close no-vig
8.8%
Market faded the model
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at IND?
- The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
IND vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND26.7± 5.4high
- Caitlin ClarkIND22.6± 7.1high
- Aliyah BostonIND16.6± 3.1high
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 3.1high
- Brittney GrinerCON6.4± 2.7high
- Makayla TimpsonIND6.1± 2.9high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND8.6± 1.4high
- Leila LacanCON4.7± 2.4high
- Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON3.7± 1.9high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 0.9high
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.1high
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 1.2high
Steals
- Aliyah BostonIND1.8± 1.7high
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.6± 1.6high
- Leila LacanCON1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages