Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 28, 2026

MIA

68-66

PregameFri, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV

WSH

63-73

ATS/MIA -1.5O/U/8.5ML/MIA-155

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

5-5

MIA +0.5 vs WSH -0.6 margin

MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

WSH no-vig %

41.9%

open 44.9% · -3.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Eury Perez

SP · #39

7-9

W-L

3.17

ERA

1.11

WHIP

137

127.2

Last 3 starts

vsWSHW(7-9)5.0 IP1 ER4 K

@CIN-6.0 IP0 ER5 K

vsPITW(6-9)7.0 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Jackson Kent

SP · #25

0-2

W-L

8.03

ERA

2.11

WHIP

12.1

Last 3 starts

@MIAL(0-2)4.2 IP3 ER5 K

@TEXL(0-1)3.2 IP5 ER3 K

vsCHC-4.0 IP3 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-155 / +128

Model edge

Win prob52% / 48%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesMIA wins series 3-2

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-155Bet MIA ML↗-155Bet MIA ML↗

+128Bet WSH ML↗+128Bet WSH ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

WSH vs MIA.

WSH is 3-7 recently; MIA is 5-5.

47.9%

model · WSH win prob

Recent form

WSH3–7-0.6
MIA5–5+0.5

Situational

WSH1d restB2B
MIA2d rest
-1.0d differential

MIA has 1 more rest day. WSH has 0 straight road games; MIA has 0.

Model angle

+6.0ppon WSH

WSH's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp
▼Line steam-1.2pp

Players to watch

Cade CavalliWSH
6.4strikeouts · ±3.0
Cade Cavalli · 6.4 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.
Eury PerezMIA
6.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.1strikeouts · ±2.6
Sandy Alcantara · 5.1 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.9.

Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3

WSH is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-21WSH @ MIA2–3
2026-08-22WSH @ MIA2–4
2026-08-23WSH @ MIA2–6

Line move

open +113→+128toward MIA

The market has moved 3.1pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
47.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like WSH.

WSH's edge is mostly venue split plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+6.0

pp edge · WSH

-2.98

CLV pp · steam

2.7u · large

on WSH

49.8%

±5.4pp band

2.65u large — +5.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.9pp

+1.9pp post-cal

Kelly

10.6%

2.6% sized

Decimal

2.28

+5.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.0pp · WSH over MIA

▲
Venue split66% conf
WSH's venue form is 35pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▼
Line steam77% conf
The market moved 3pp away from WSH since open.
-1.2pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
WSH grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
MIA has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.6pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
MIA has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.1pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+128

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

41.9%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.0pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

MIA

no live price

WSH

★ best

+128DraftKings

edge +6.0pp · implied 41.9%

Book	MIA	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-155	+128★	+6.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
6.4± 3.0high
Eury PerezMIA
6.2± 2.3high
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Hits

Javier SanojaMIA
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.7high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Daylen LileWSH
2.1± 2.7high
Javier SanojaMIA
1.9± 1.9high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Daylen LileWSH
0.8± 1.6high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Jackson KentWSH
3.7± 1.6low
Jake IrvinWSH
3.1± 2.1medium
Andrew AlvarezWSH
2.0± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

WSH

.725

OPS

.719

▶

.756

.326

OBP

.318

.325

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.18

3.88

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.69

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.39

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

The One modelTossup

Fri, Aug 28

MIA★

Marlins

79-76

vs52.1%MIA

WSH

Nationals

74-80

MIA 52.1%win prob47.9% WSH

MIA 1506 · WSH 1461Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

WSH vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like WSH.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like WSH.