Recent form
5-5
MIA +0.5 vs WSH -1.3 margin
MIA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
MIA
MIA
68-66
PregameFri, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV
WSH
WSH
62-73
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Eury Perez
SP · #39
7-9
W-L
3.17
ERA
1.11
WHIP
137
K
127.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsWSHW(7-9)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@CIN-6.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsPITW(6-9)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
Home starter
J
Jackson Kent
SP · #25
0-2
W-L
8.03
ERA
2.11
WHIP
14
K
12.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIAL(0-2)4.2 IP3 ER5 K
@TEXL(0-1)3.2 IP5 ER3 K
vsCHC-4.0 IP3 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob53% / 47%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesMIA wins series 3-2
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs MIA.
WSH is 2-8 recently; MIA is 5-5.
47.3%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH2–8-1.3
- MIA5–5+0.5
Situational
- WSH2d rest
- MIA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; MIA has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Cade CavalliWSH6.4strikeouts · ±3.0
Cade Cavalli · 6.4 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.
- Eury PerezMIA6.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Eury Perez · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.1strikeouts · ±2.6
Sandy Alcantara · 5.1 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.9.
Head-to-head · 0-3 · last 3
WSH is 0-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-21WSH @ MIA2–3
- 2026-08-22WSH @ MIA2–4
- 2026-08-23WSH @ MIA2–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
46.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.04 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 96 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cade CavalliWSH6.4± 3.0high
- Eury PerezMIA6.2± 2.3high
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.1± 2.6high
Hits
- Xavier EdwardsMIA1.2± 0.7high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.0± 1.0high
- Kyle StowersMIA1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Heriberto HernandezMIA1.8± 1.6high
- Javier SanojaMIA1.7± 2.0high
- Daylen LileWSH1.7± 2.5high
RBIs
- Heriberto HernandezMIA0.7± 0.9high
- Javier SanojaMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Daylen LileWSH0.6± 1.6high
Earned runs
- Jackson KentWSH3.7± 1.6low
- Jake IrvinWSH3.3± 1.9medium
- Janson JunkMIA2.3± 3.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
WSH
.725
OPS
.719
▶.753
.326
OBP
.318
.323
4.34
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.16
3.88
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.72
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.39
8.4
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 28MIA★
Marlins
79-76
vs52.7%MIA
WSH
Nationals
73-80
MIA 52.7%win prob47.3% WSH
MIA 1506 · WSH 1457Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
