Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream
POR
8-9
ATL
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Atlanta Dream Friday at 8/28 - 7:30 PM EDT. ATL arrives on a 4-game win streak (7-2 in their last 9).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
45
FG %
45
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
ATL86@POR66POR@ATLupcomingPOR@ATLtodayScouting report
POR @ ATL
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
12-4
#6
Conf rank
#1
-5.9
Pt diff
+7.1
W1
Streak
W4
4-6
Last 10
8-2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL19.1± 8.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL18.0± 5.7medium
- Angel ReeseATL15.7± 5.2medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.1medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
- Naz HillmonATL5.0± 2.2medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL7.4± 3.5medium
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
- Teja OblakPOR3.4± 2.5low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 0.7medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.7± 1.1medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.8± 2.3medium
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.9± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
ATL
44.6%
FG%
44.7
44.7%
34.1%
3PT %
33.5
34.2%
82.2
PPG
85.9
▶90.2
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.3
14.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.5