
NYG
1-1

NYJ
1-1
NFL · Drive chart
9 drives · 2 TD · 2 INT · 1 Fum · 3 PuntModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NYJ favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYJ win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYJ win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYJ win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
NYG
league avg
NYJ
22.6
Pts / game
23.5
14.5
347
Yds / game
342
287
218
Pass yds / G
225
164
129
Rush yds / G
117
123
0.8
TO / G
0.9
1.1
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Team pages
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · liveJ. Winston
NYG · #19 · QB
C. Klubnik
NYJ · #10 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveNYG · top performer

Jameis Winston
· #19
4/9
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
NYJ · top performer

Cade Klubnik
· #10
4/9
C/A
0
TD
1
INT
Recent swing: 10pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/9 | 54 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 4/9 | 48 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 37 | 1 | 16 | |
| 8 | 34 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | -4 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 13 | 67 | 1 | 16 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 36 | 0 | 23 | |
| 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 54 | 0 | 23 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 26 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39 | 39 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 39 | 39 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 81 | 81.0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 81 | 81.0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/9 | 33 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 4/9 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 30 | 1 | 7 | |
| 3 | 13 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Team | 13 | 49 | 1 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 25 | 0 | 22 | |
| 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 4 | 33 | 0 | 22 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 27 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 27 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 0/1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 0 | |
| Team | 2 | 94 | 47.0 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
115
Total yds
82
67
Rush yds
49
2
TO
1
Team stats
NYG
Away
Stat
NYJ
Home
115
Total yards
82
67
Rushing yds
49
2
Turnovers
1
1-5
totalPenaltiesYards
3-25
11:40
possessionTime
10:43
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYG -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
0.5pt· 6.2h
Total
36.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
4· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+0.5 since open
Total
36.5
0.0 since open
How it's going
NYG lead NYJ 7-6 (7:37 - 2nd). Jameis Winston led the way — 4/9 · 54 YDS · 1 INT · 24.5 QBR.
Win probability
NYJ vs NYG
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| NYJ | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Period scoring
NYG won 1 · NYJ won 0
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 63 plays
−4pp
+3pp
+1pp
BIG MOMENT
+7pp
+2pp
+2pp
+0.6pp
−2pp
+2pp
+2pp
+2pp
−2pp
−2pp
−2pp
+2pp
+1pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
−3pp
+2pp
−0.7pp
BIG MOMENT
+9pp
−2pp
−1pp
Betting line
NYG -2.5·O/U 36.5·NYG -135/NYJ +113