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DAL#5 · National Football Conference
Dallas Cowboys
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#21 of 32
Elo rating 1472.2 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-04 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 14 at DET, 30-44, 2025-12-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 8 vs MIN, 26-34, 2025-12-14. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 17 vs LAC, 17-34, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 7 at WSH, 30-23, 2025-12-25. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 17 at NYG, 17-34, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 4th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 959 graded plays; the defense ranked 32nd across 877.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
959 off plays · 877 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.134
Team EPA per play
4th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.202
Team EPA per play allowed
32nd of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split959/877 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.13490
4th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.061 (25th)
Success47.2%81
7th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 42.1% (22nd)
Explosive7.7%65
12th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.2% (23rd)
Dropbacks+0.20490
4th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.009 (25th)
Rushes+0.02177
8th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.144 (27th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.2020
32nd of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.076 (27th)
Success49.5%0
32nd of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 45.2% (21st)
Explosive10.6%0
32nd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.5% (21st)
Dropbacks+0.2940
32nd of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.051 (16th)
Rushes+0.05210
29th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG +0.115 (31st)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.134 · 2024 REG -0.061 · +0.195
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.202 · 2024 REG +0.076 · +0.126
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 959 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Dak Prescott30 TD4,552
- 2Joe Milton III1 TD183
Rushing yards
- 1Javonte Williams11 TD1,201
- 2Malik Davis2 TD250
- 3Dak Prescott2 TD177
- 4Jaydon Blue1 TD129
- 5Miles Sanders1 TD117
Receiving yards
- 1George Pickens9 TD1,429
- 2CeeDee Lamb3 TD1,077
- 3Jake Ferguson8 TD600
- 4Ryan Flournoy4 TD475
- 5KaVontae Turpin2 TD396
Receptions
- 1George Pickens17 G93
- 2Jake Ferguson17 G82
- 3CeeDee Lamb13 G75
- 4Ryan Flournoy15 G40
- 5Javonte Williams16 G35
Total TDs
- 1Dak Prescott17 G32
- 2Javonte Williams16 G13
- 3George Pickens17 G9
- 4Jake Ferguson17 G8
- 5Ryan Flournoy15 G4
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1Malik Davis52 car4.8
- 2Javonte Williams252 car4.8
- 3Dak Prescott53 car3.3
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Dak Prescott
600 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate74.4
- EPA / play+0.165
- Accuracy +4.6%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.165 EPA/play and 4.6% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Strong
avg rank 8.6
YDS
1st
Total yards
PASS
1st
Pass yards
RUSH
9th
Rush yards
PTS
7th
Points
TO
25th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
69% pass · 31% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
404vs 342 yds/GAbove avg
Passing yards
279vs 225 yds/GAbove avg
Rushing yards
126vs 117 yds/GSlight edge
Points scored
28.2vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg
Turnovers
1.20vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 6 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 3
Signed WR Jaden Smith to a contract.
- Jun 1
Signed WR Romello Brinson to a contract.
- May 27
Placed WR Parris Campbell on the reserve/retired list.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 45
The attack
A. Cornelius
OT · #65
A. Smith
WR · #83
B. Spann-Ford
TE · #89
C. Brown
WR · #6
C. Lamb
WR · #88
C. Glaser
G · #68
C. Beebe
C · #56
D. Prescott
QB · #4
D. Mims
WR · #84
D. Rogers
TE · #49
D. Wingfield
G · #64
D. Richardson
RB · #43
D. Shelton
OT · #67
G. Pickens
WR · #3
H. Luepke
FB · #40
I. Abanikanda
RB · #30
J. Smith
WR · #17
J. Ferguson
TE · #87
J. Williams
RB · #33
J. Blue
RB · #23
J. Milton III
QB · #10
J. Mingo
WR · #81
J. Hudson
WR · #18
K. Turpin
WR · #9
L. Schoonmaker
TE · #86
M. Davis
RB · #20
M. Johnson
OT · #79
M. Valdes-Scantling
WR · #11
M. Hennessy
C · #72
M. Trigg
TE · #46
N. Thomas
OT · #71
N. Leverett
G · #51
P. Mafah
RB · #37
P. Fant
TE · #85
R. Flournoy
WR · #19
S. Howell
QB · #16
S. Pete
OT · #75
T.J. Bass
G · #66
T. Steele
OT · #78
T. Holden
WR · #80
T. Keegan
G · #77
T. Booker
G · #52
T. Guyton
OT · #60
T. Johnson
WR · #15
T. Smith
G · #73
Defense · 44
The stop unit
A. Odeleye
DT · #96
A. Clark
S · #38
A. Speed
CB · #39
C. Carson
CB · #21
C. Downs
S · #13
C. Snowden
LB · #49
C. Durant
CB · #2
C. Robinson
LB · #42
D.J. Withers
DT · #59
D. Bland
CB · #26
D. Winters
LB · #53
D. Overshown
LB · #0
D. Kendrick
CB · #15
D. Moore
CB · #29
D. Ezeiruaku
LB · #6
I. Land
LB · #58
J. Barham
LB · #55
J. Thompson
S · #34
J. Houston
LB · #53
J. Toia
DT · #93
J. Bullard
DT · #98
J. Butler
CB · #31
J. Wood
S · #32
J. Barron
LB · #45
K. Gilliam Jr.
DT · #94
K. Clark
DT · #97
L. Patterson
LB · #47
L. Overton
DT · #99
M. Lawrence
LB · #57
M. Hooker
S · #24
M. Liufau
LB · #35
M. Bell
S · #14
O. Ogbonnia
DT · #91
P.J. Locke
S · #1
Q. Williams
DT · #92
R. Gary
LB · #7
R. Steward
CB · #27
S. Williams
LB · #54
S. Revel Jr.
CB · #28
S. James
LB · #50
T. Dunn Jr.
DT · #95
T. Bridges
CB · #25
T. Wheat
LB · #90
Z. Childress
CB · #48
Special teams · 3
