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NO#10 · National Football Conference
New Orleans Saints
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#25 of 32
Elo rating 1428.5 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 4 at TB, 24-20, 2025-12-07. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 vs CAR, 20-17, 2025-12-14. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 23 vs NYJ, 29-6, 2025-12-21. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 8 at TEN, 34-26, 2025-12-28. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 2 at ATL, 17-19, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 27th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 900 graded plays; the defense ranked 10th across 875.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
900 off plays · 875 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.090
Team EPA per play
27th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.034
Team EPA per play allowed
10th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split900/875 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays-0.09016
27th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.028 (21st)
Success42.0%19
26th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 40.6% (25th)
Explosive5.0%0
32nd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.3% (14th)
Dropbacks-0.05919
26th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.013 (26th)
Rushes-0.1416
30th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.049 (14th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.03471
10th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.086 (29th)
Success43.3%61
13th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 46.5% (26th)
Explosive7.2%61
13th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.9% (25th)
Dropbacks+0.00858
14th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.093 (23rd)
Rushes-0.08977
8th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG +0.075 (30th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG -0.090 · 2024 REG -0.028 · -0.062
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.034 · 2024 REG +0.086 · -0.120
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 900 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Tyler Shough10 TD2,384
- 2Spencer Rattler8 TD1,586
- 3Taysom Hill1 TD57
Rushing yards
- 1Alvin Kamara1 TD471
- 2Devin Neal2 TD206
- 3Audric Estimé1 TD198
- 4Kendre Miller1 TD193
- 5Tyler Shough3 TD186
Receiving yards
- 1Chris Olave9 TD1,163
- 2Juwan Johnson3 TD889
- 3Rashid Shaheed2 TD499
- 4Devaughn Vele2 TD293
- 5Alvin Kamara0 TD186
Receptions
- 1Chris Olave16 G100
- 2Juwan Johnson17 G77
- 3Rashid Shaheed9 G44
- 4Alvin Kamara11 G33
- 5Devaughn Vele9 G25
Total TDs
- 1Tyler Shough11 G13
- 2Chris Olave16 G9
- 3Spencer Rattler9 G8
- 4Juwan Johnson17 G3
- 5Taysom Hill13 G2
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Tyler Shough
327 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate47.0
- EPA / play+0.009
- Accuracy +0.9%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.009 EPA/play and 0.9% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Soft
avg rank 23.0
YDS
22nd
Total yards
PASS
10th
Pass yards
RUSH
28th
Rush yards
PTS
28th
Points
TO
27th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-heavy
72% pass · 28% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
331vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
237vs 225 yds/GSlight edge
Rushing yards
94vs 117 yds/GBelow avg
Points scored
16.6vs 23.5 pts/GBelow avg
Turnovers
1.20vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 8 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 8
Jordyn Tyson
WR · Arizona St.
RND 2 · PICK 42
Christen Miller
DT · Georgia
RND 3 · PICK 73
Oscar Delp
TE · Georgia
RND 4 · PICK 132
Jeremiah Wright
G · Auburn
RND 4 · PICK 136
Bryce Lance
WR · North Dakota St.
RND 5 · PICK 172
Lorenzo Styles Jr.
SAF · Ohio St.
RND 6 · PICK 190
Barion Brown
WR · LSU
RND 7 · PICK 219
TJ Hall
CB · Iowa
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- May 27
Waived DB Jeremiah McClendon. Signed LB Jackson Sirmon to a contract.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 47
The attack
A. Herron
OT · #70
A. Wollschlaeger
OT · #79
A. Kamara
RB · #41
A. Richards
OT · #72
A. Estime
RB · #30
B. Brown
WR · #19
B. Wesley
OT · #69
B. Rechsteiner
WR · #89
B. Lance
WR · #18
B. Means
WR · #16
C. Ruiz
G · #51
C. Hawkins
WR · #18
C. Olave
WR · #12
C. Donaldson
RB · #43
C. Hardy
TE · #86
D. Edwards
G · #76
D. Vele
WR · #14
D. Neal
RB · #24
D. Radunz
G · #77
E. Kilty
OT · #73
E. McCoy
C · #78
H. Dekkers
QB
J. Moreno-Cropper
WR · #85
J. Wright
G · #65
J. Tyson
WR · #0
J. Johnson
TE · #83
K. Banks Jr.
OT · #71
K. Miller
RB · #5
K. Austin Jr.
WR · #81
M. Tipton
WR · #15
M. Matavao
TE · #80
N. Saldiveri
OT · #64
N. Fant
TE · #87
O. Delp
TE · #88
R. Bell
WR · #11
S. Rattler
QB · #2
T. Fuaga
OT · #75
T. Simpkins III
G · #68
T. Etienne Jr.
RB · #3
T. Palmer
WR · #10
T. Welch
TE · #82
T. Chandler
RB · #32
T. Shough
QB · #6
W. Sherman
G · #66
X. Truss
OT · #74
Z. Wilson
QB · #4
Z. Mitchell-Paden
TE · #84
Defense · 41
The stop unit
A. Jennings
LB · #54
B. Bresee
DT · #90
C. Jordan
DE · #94
C. Granderson
DE · #96
C. Young
DE · #99
C. Rumph II
DE · #58
C. Miller
DT · #52
D. Beanum
CB · #37
D. Stutsman
LB · #28
D. Godchaux
DT · #92
E. Davison
S · #35
F. Diggs
DE · #40
I. Yiadom
CB · #27
I. Stalbird
LB · #44
J. Sirmon
LB · #45
J. Suggs
DT · #62
J. Price
CB · #38
J. Ford
LB · #53
J. Ridgeway III
DT · #95
J. Sanker
S · #33
J. Howden
S · #31
J. Blackmon
S · #23
J. Reid
S · #21
K. Elliss
LB · #55
K. Silver
DT · #61
K. Boyd
DT · #97
K. McKinstry
CB · #1
L. Styles Jr.
S · #36
M. Emerson Jr.
CB · #47
M. Heldman
DE · #63
M. Reid
CB
M. Cole
DE · #57
N. Shepherd
DT · #93
P. Werner
LB · #20
Q. Riley
CB · #29
R. Wright
CB · #25
T. Burgess
S · #26
T. Hall
CB · #34
T. Wilson
DE · #98
V. Broughton
DT · #91
Z. Harris
DT · #67
Special teams · 4
