WSH#16 · National Football Conference

Washington Commanders

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#24 of 32

Elo rating 1455.6 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on WSH

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 19th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 786 graded plays; the defense ranked 29th across 888.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

786 off plays · 888 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.010

Team EPA per play

19th of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.139

Team EPA per play allowed

29th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split786/888 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays+0.01042

19th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.120 (5th)

Success44.8%52

15th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 47.9% (7th)

Explosive7.5%52

16th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.0% (16th)

Dropbacks+0.06058

14th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.157 (8th)

Rushes-0.06332

21st of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.064 (4th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays+0.13910

29th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.005 (15th)

Success48.3%13

28th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 42.3% (9th)

Explosive8.1%42

19th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.7% (23rd)

Dropbacks+0.20410

29th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.035 (12th)

Rushes+0.04313

28th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.055 (19th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.010 · 2024 REG +0.120 · -0.110

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.139 · 2024 REG -0.005 · +0.144

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 786 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Marcus Mariota10 TD1,695
2Jayden Daniels8 TD1,262
3Josh Johnson1 TD372

Rushing yards

1Jacory Croskey-Merritt8 TD805
2Chris Rodriguez Jr.6 TD500
3Marcus Mariota1 TD297
4Jayden Daniels2 TD278
5Jeremy McNichols1 TD221

Receiving yards

1Deebo Samuel Sr.5 TD727
2Terry McLaurin3 TD582
3Zach Ertz4 TD504
4Jaylin Lane0 TD225
5Chris Moore1 TD207

Receptions

1Deebo Samuel Sr.16 G72
2Zach Ertz13 G50
3Terry McLaurin10 G38
4Jeremy McNichols16 G25
5Jaylin Lane15 G16

Total TDs

1Marcus Mariota10 G11
2Jayden Daniels7 G10
3Jacory Croskey-Merritt17 G8
4Deebo Samuel Sr.16 G6
5Chris Rodriguez Jr.12 G6

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1Marcus Mariota50 car5.9
2Jayden Daniels58 car4.8
3Jacory Croskey-Merritt175 car4.6
4Chris Rodriguez Jr.112 car4.5

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Marcus Mariota

227 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate54.8

EPA / play+0.011
Accuracy +5.0%
Pressure0.2%

Built on +0.011 EPA/play and 5.0% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Middle

avg rank 19.2

YDS

23rd

Total yards

PASS

24th

Pass yards

RUSH

4th

Rush yards

PTS

23rd

Points

TO

22nd

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Balanced

59% pass · 41% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

331vs 342 yds/GLeague avg

Passing yards

196vs 225 yds/GSlight gap

Rushing yards

135vs 117 yds/GAbove avg

Points scored

20.5vs 23.5 pts/GSlight gap

Turnovers

1.10vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

Offense · 43