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BAL#1 · American Football Conference
Baltimore Ravens
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#12 of 32
Elo rating 1542.8 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 5 vs PIT, 22-27, 2025-12-07. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 24 at CIN, 24-0, 2025-12-14. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 4 vs NE, 24-28, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 17 at GB, 41-24, 2025-12-27. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 2 at PIT, 24-26, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 11th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 824 graded plays; the defense ranked 21st across 873.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
824 off plays · 873 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.050
Team EPA per play
11th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.048
Team EPA per play allowed
21st of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split824/873 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.05068
11th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.225 (1st)
Success45.5%68
11th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 50.9% (2nd)
Explosive8.9%81
7th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 11.3% (2nd)
Dropbacks+0.05148
17th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.313 (1st)
Rushes+0.04994
3rd of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.108 (1st)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.04835
21st of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.031 (7th)
Success44.2%52
16th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 40.6% (4th)
Explosive9.3%16
27th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 6.6% (2nd)
Dropbacks+0.10535
21st of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.038 (13th)
Rushes-0.05958
14th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.164 (5th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.225 · -0.175
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.048 · 2024 REG -0.031 · +0.079
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 824 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Lamar Jackson21 TD2,549
- 2Tyler Huntley2 TD426
- 3Cooper Rush0 TD303
Rushing yards
- 1Derrick Henry16 TD1,595
- 2Lamar Jackson2 TD349
- 3Keaton Mitchell1 TD341
- 4Tyler Huntley0 TD151
- 5Justice Hill2 TD93
Receiving yards
- 1Zay Flowers5 TD1,211
- 2Mark Andrews5 TD422
- 3DeAndre Hopkins2 TD330
- 4Isaiah Likely1 TD307
- 5Rashod Bateman2 TD224
Receptions
- 1Zay Flowers17 G86
- 2Mark Andrews17 G48
- 3Isaiah Likely12 G27
- 4DeAndre Hopkins17 G22
- 5Justice Hill10 G21
Total TDs
- 1Lamar Jackson13 G23
- 2Derrick Henry17 G16
- 3Mark Andrews17 G6
- 4Zay Flowers17 G6
- 5Justice Hill10 G3
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1Keaton Mitchell59 car5.8
- 2Lamar Jackson67 car5.2
- 3Derrick Henry307 car5.2
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Lamar Jackson
302 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate56.4
- EPA / play+0.115
- Accuracy +-2.6%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.115 EPA/play and -2.6% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Middle
avg rank 15.4
YDS
13th
Total yards
PASS
28th
Pass yards
RUSH
2nd
Rush yards
PTS
13th
Points
TO
21st
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Balanced
55% pass · 45% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
349vs 342 yds/GLeague avg
Passing yards
193vs 225 yds/GSlight gap
Rushing yards
157vs 117 yds/GAbove avg
Points scored
24.4vs 23.5 pts/GLeague avg
Turnovers
1.10vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 11 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 14
Olaivavega Ioane
G · Penn St.
RND 2 · PICK 45
Zion Young
EDGE · Missouri
RND 3 · PICK 80
Ja'Kobi Lane
WR · USC
RND 4 · PICK 115
Elijah Sarratt
WR · Indiana
RND 4 · PICK 133
Matthew Hibner
TE · SMU
RND 5 · PICK 162
Chandler Rivers
CB · Duke
RND 5 · PICK 173
Josh Cuevas
TE · Alabama
RND 5 · PICK 174
Adam Randall
RB · Clemson
RND 6 · PICK 211
Ryan Eckley
P · Michigan St.
RND 7 · PICK 250
Rayshaun Benny
DT · Michigan
RND 7 · PICK 253
Evan Beerntsen
G · Northwestern
Offense · 44
The attack
A. Randall
RB · #23
A. Vorhees
G · #72
C. Vinson
OT · #76
C. Moore
WR
C. Bullock
C · #67
C. Johnson
WR · #86
C. Braham Jr.
WR · #82
D. Pinter
C · #63
D. Wade
WR · #18
D. Henry
RB · #22
D. Walker
WR · #81
D. Pounds
OT · #61
D. McMillan
RB · #36
D. Smythe
TE · #80
E. Sarratt
WR · #13
E. Tau-Tolliver
RB · #34
E. Jones Jr.
OT · #51
E. Pocic
C · #77
E. Beerntsen
G · #60
G. Lichtenhan
OT · #78
H. Adeniji
OT · #66
J. Lane
WR · #6
J. Fagnano
QB · #12
J. Simpson
G · #74
J. Cuevas
TE · #85
J. Gwyn
G · #54
J. Hill
RB · #43
L. Wester
WR · #10
L. Jackson
QB · #8
L. Scott
FB · #47
M. Andrews
TE · #89
M. Hibner
TE · #88
N. Dawkins
C · #53
O. Smith Jr.
WR · #87
O. Ioane
G · #71
R. Ali
RB · #26
R. Bateman
WR · #7
R. Rosengarten
OT · #70
R. Stanley
OT · #79
S. Thompson
QB · #11
T. Pezza
TE · #84
T. Huntley
QB · #5
X. Guillory
WR · #16
Z. Flowers
WR · #4
Defense · 44
The stop unit
A. Graves
DT · #59
A. Isaac
LB · #50
A. Peebles
DT · #90
A. Oruwariye
CB · #25
B. Kone
CB · #31
B. Washington Jr.
DT · #96
C. Campbell
DE · #93
C. Jones
LB · #48
C. Rivers
CB · #29
C. Awuzie
CB · #3
C. Okoye
DT · #97
D. Olajiga
DT · #65
D. Wilson Jr.
DT · #58
D. DeLuca
LB · #42
E. Burke
LB · #45
J. Robinson
S · #41
J. Higgins IV
LB · #49
J. Hawkins
S · #21
J. Jenkins
DT · #94
K. Wallace
CB · #26
K. Rucker
LB · #56
K. Jackson
S · #39
K. Martin
CB · #38
K. Hamilton
S · #14
L. Webb Jr.
CB · #34
M. Starks
S · #24
M. Humphrey
CB · #44
M. Robinson
CB · #28
M. McDoom
CB · #35
M. Green
LB · #15
N. Wiggins
CB · #2
N. Madubuike
DT · #92
R. Benny
DT · #99
R. Williford
LB · #57
R. Longerbeam
CB · #37
R. Smith
LB · #0
S. Walters
S · #36
T.J. Tampa
CB · #27
T. Robinson
LB · #95
T. Buchanan
LB · #40
T. Jones
DT · #98
T. Simpson
LB · #32
T. Hendrickson
LB · #91
Z. Young
LB · #9
Special teams · 3
