Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BOS?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+8WSH

WSH

45-43

102

BOS

37-48

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

32,574 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

BOS no-vig %

57.3%

open 58.3% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.9%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.98

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BOS?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.0pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

BOS

★ best

+102DraftKings

edge +7.0pp · implied 46.4%

Book	WSH	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-133	+102★	+7.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Payton TolleBOS
5.8± 2.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high

Hits

CJ AbramsWSH
1.4± 1.4high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.0high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
3.0± 3.5high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.5± 2.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.4± 2.2high

RBIs

Andres ChaparroWSH
1.0± 2.5high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.0± 1.6high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.9± 1.3high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
3.0± 2.9high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

BOS

.772

OPS

◀

.720

.709

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.40

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.24

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 10 · BOS 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	2	0	0	5	0	0	3	0	0	10
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.265	4	2	2	3	1	2	1
C. Mead3B	.227	5	2	2	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.170	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.234	3	0	2	0	0	2	1
D. LileLF	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.225	3	1	2	1	0	2	1
J. Vivas3B	.250	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.233	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
D. MillasC	.190	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.280	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
Team		38	10	13	9	3	10	10

Player

.265

.227

.170

.234

.250

.225

.250

.233

.190

.280

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. LordRP	2.1	2	0	0	2	1	53
A. AlvarezSP	4.2	2	0	0	1	6	74
R. CornelioRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	35
C. PalmquistRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	9	2	2	4	10	178

Player

2.1

4.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

178

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.318	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RafaelaCF	.282	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
W. AbreuRF	.266	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
W. Contreras1B	.283	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
R. GonzalezDH	.182	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.229	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
N. EatonOF	.174	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.218	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.289	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
Team		35	2	9	2	0	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	3.0	7	6	6	3	5	76
R. WatsonRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	1	32
J. MoranRP	1.2	0	1	1	2	3	26
A. GamboaRP	2.1	3	2	2	4	1	44
Team	9.0	13	10	10	10	10	178

Team

WSH

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.