WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9ATL

SEA

6-25

8998

ATL

18-10

WNBAFri, Jul 31FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-1VegasATL -11.5

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Angel Reese

F · #5

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 27.1

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MalongaC · #14	25	16	8-10	—	—	0	13	1
A. FamC · #11	29	8	2-4	1-3	3-4	-10	9	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	34	23	9-19	0-6	5-7	0	5	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	26	9	2-11	0-3	5-6	-1	0	3
J. MelbourneG · #5	25	9	2-7	1-4	4-4	-6	1	6
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	16	8	2-4	2-4	2-2	-4	0	0
E. MagbegorF · #13	14	12	4-7	1-3	3-3	+2	1	1
J. HorstonF · #23	12	2	1-4	—	—	-15	0	0
S. DolsonC · #31	5	0	—	—	—	-10	0	0
Z. CookeG · #7	13	2	0-2	—	2-4	-1	1	0
Team		89	30-68	5-23	24-30		30	17
DNP: M. Holmes, T. Thierry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	25	18	6-9	2-5	4-5	+6	2	3
A. ReeseF · #5	38	21	5-12	2-5	9-12	+14	13	2
A. GrayG · #15	31	16	5-13	1-4	5-6	+9	3	2
J. CanadaG · #3	31	10	1-5	0-1	8-8	+3	4	9
R. HowardG · #10	35	9	3-13	3-9	—	+2	2	5
Bench
B. JonesF · #42	17	14	4-5	—	6-6	-2	5	0
J. SherrodG · #4	9	7	2-4	1-1	2-2	+6	2	1
I. BorlaseG · #20	14	3	1-3	1-1	—	+7	2	2
Team		98	27-64	10-26	34-39		33	24
DNP: S. Kone, M. Okot, S. Walker-Kimbrough, T. Paopao, A. Nye

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

30-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-64

FG %

5-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

34-39

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Jun 28

ATL90@

SEA105

Jul 10

SEA78@

ATL89

Jul 31

SEA89@

ATL98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

SEA+45518%

ATL-62586%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -11.5↗SpreadBet ATL -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

+1.0 since open

Total

178.5

+2.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat SEA 98-89. A. Reese led with 21 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 27-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

ATLstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 64

Bench(3)

24 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 27.1 · 88-94

+7pp→ 9% WP

Naz Hillmon · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	15	18	26	30	89
ATL	27	20	19	32	98

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · ATL won 3

Malonga 4

Gray 5

Johnson 6

Hillmon 17

Samuelson 8

Jones 6

Hiedeman 9

Reese 8

SEA

ATL

Shooting comparison

SEA

ATL

44%

30-68

42%

27-64

22%

5-23

3PT

38%

10-26

80%

24-30

87%

34-39

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 89·ATL 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 89·ATL 98
Q4·1.0
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 89·ATL 98
Q4·1.0
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot running jump shot
SEA 89·ATL 98
Q4·8.4
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 89·ATL 98
Q4·8.4
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 89·ATL 97
Q4·8.4
Natisha Hiedeman personal take foul
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·9.6
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·14.8
Katie Lou Samuelson misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·16.2
Dominique Malonga offensive rebound
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·19.9
Natisha Hiedeman misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 89·ATL 96
+0.8pp
Q4·25.1
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·25.1
Storm Full timeout
SEA 89·ATL 96
Q4·25.1
Jordin Canada makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 89·ATL 96
−0.7pp
Q4·25.1
Jordin Canada makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 89·ATL 95
Q4·25.1
Jordan Horston personal foul
SEA 89·ATL 94
+2pp
Q4·27.1
Dream Full timeout
SEA 89·ATL 94
Q4·27.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 89·ATL 94
Q4·27.1
Jordan Horston enters the game for Katie Lou Samuelson
·
SEA 88·ATL 94
Q4·27.1
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 88·ATL 94
+2pp
Q4·27.1
Natisha Hiedeman misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 88·ATL 94
+4pp
Q4·27.1
Naz Hillmon shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SEA 88·ATL 94
−7pp
Q4·30.6
Storm Reset Timeout
SEA 88·ATL 94
Q4·30.6
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 88·ATL 94
−0.8pp
Q4·30.6
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 88·ATL 93
Q4·30.6
Awa Fam enters the game for Ezi Magbegor
·
SEA 88·ATL 92
Q4·30.6
Ezi Magbegor personal foul
SEA 88·ATL 92
+3pp
Q4·40.4
Dream Reset Timeout
SEA 88·ATL 92
Q4·40.4
Dream Full timeout
SEA 88·ATL 92
Q4·43.4
Jade Melbourne makes driving layup
SEA 88·ATL 92
−1pp

Betting line

ATL -11.5·O/U 178.5·SEA +455/ATL -625

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

tlanta Dream held off Seattle Storm, 98–89.

SEA +11.5 cashed (ATL won by 9). Total cleared the 178.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

ATL

eFG%

shooting

47.8%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

19.0%

17.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

26.7%

33.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

35.3%

53.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Rhyne HowardATL · G
AST/TO2.288
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

86.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
84.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
84.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
87.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

ATL

★ best

-600DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 80.8%

Book	SEA	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	+390	-600★	+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 5.8high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
17.4± 8.5high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
16.4± 6.5high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.2± 3.6high
Dominique MalongaSEA
10.0± 2.9high
Awa FamSEA
7.2± 2.2high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.3± 2.0high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.8± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
4.0± 1.1high

Blocks

Dominique MalongaSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Awa FamSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.9± 1.3high

Steals

Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.9high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Angel ReeseATL
1.8± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Toni Patillo

Referee

Agon Abazi

Referee

Kelsey Reynolds

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Seattle StormAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop