Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BAL?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

WSH

43-42

BAL

39-46

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

27,626 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
40.5%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.9%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.6%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+163

Close price

+163

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

36.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BAL?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+46.6pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+381DraftKings

edge +46.6pp · implied 19.5%

BAL

no live price

Book	WSH	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+381★	-594	+46.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.4± 3.0high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

CJ AbramsWSH
1.3± 1.4high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.3low

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.6± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.4± 2.8high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.2± 3.4low

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
CJ AbramsWSH
0.9± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

BAL

.772

OPS

◀

.720

.712

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.320

5.40

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.21

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.34

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · BAL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	3	0	2	0	1	0	0	6
BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.258	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.279	5	3	3	5	2	0	0
C. Mead3B	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.226	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.260	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. RuizC	.277	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. Nunez2B	.237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	7	5	2	5	6

Player

.258

.279

.222

.275

.226

.248

.224

.260

.277

.237

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. LittellSP	5.0	3	2	2	2	3	82
M. ParkerRP	1.2	2	2	2	1	2	29
R. LoveladyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
P. PoulinRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	25
Team	9.0	5	4	4	4	5	142

Player

5.0

1.2

0.1

2.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. HendersonSS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.255	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.252	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
S. BasalloC	.251	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BeaversRF	.238	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Mayo3B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. CowserCF	.235	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Holliday2B	.204	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.302	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.247	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	5	4	2	4	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	4.0	1	4	3	5	2	85
T. WellsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
A. SuarezRP	3.0	3	1	1	0	2	37
G. WolframRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	7	6	5	5	6	147

Team

WSH

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

BAL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.