Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at COL?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+4WSH

WSH

51-50

COL

40-62

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

20,050 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 11.5 · +0.5

COL no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.8%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
41.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.6%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.3%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.53

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-123

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at COL?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.1pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

COL

★ best

+1100DraftKings

edge +22.1pp · implied 12.8%

Book	WSH	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-131	+1100★	+22.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Jake IrvinWSH
4.8± 3.1low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.9high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
2.0± 2.7low

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

COL

.765

OPS

◀

.720

.746

.326

OBP

.318

.324

5.30

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.82

4.78

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.51

1.40

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 7 · COL 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	7
COL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.271	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. Mead3B	.262	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.215	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.275	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
D. CrewsRF	.206	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. YoungCF	.233	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
H. FordC	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.247	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.279	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	12	7	3	2	7

Player

.271

.262

.215

.275

.206

.233

.273

.279

.246

.247

.240

.279

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AlvarezSP	4.1	6	3	3	3	2	74
R. CornelioRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	0	29
M. KrookRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
T. CosgroveRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	6	3	3	5	3	121

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

121

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.305	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. CarriggCF	.287	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Rumfield1B	.296	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
W. Castro2B	.264	3	0	1	3	0	1	0
B. FulfordDH	.186	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.198	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.295	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. SullivanC	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	3	0	5	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	6.0	7	4	4	2	4	91
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19
J. MejiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
V. VodnikRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
Team	9.0	12	7	7	2	7	140

Team

WSH

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.