Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at COL?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+1COL

WSH

51-51

COL

41-62

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

24,273 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 13.0

open O/U 12.5 · +0.5

COL no-vig %

50.9%

open 50.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
42.5%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.41

CLV pp

Open price

-106

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

49.1%

Close no-vig

50.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at COL?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.1pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+121DraftKings

edge +20.1pp · implied 42.4%

COL

no live price

Book	WSH	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+121★	-159	+20.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Jake IrvinWSH
4.8± 3.1low

Hits

Cole CarriggCOL
1.2± 1.3high
Kyle KarrosCOL
1.1± 0.8high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.6high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 3.3high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.9± 1.6high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.8± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

COL

.768

OPS

◀

.720

.746

.327

OBP

.318

.324

5.35

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.84

4.77

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.51

1.40

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

WSH 7 · COL 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	2	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	7
COL	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.273	5	1	2	2	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.281	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.243	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.279	3	2	2	4	2	1	0
C. Mead3B	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. LileLF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. RuizC	.275	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. Nunez2B	.250	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Chaparro1B	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.239	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	7	2	2	10

Player

.273

.281

.243

.279

.258

.247

.275

.250

.230

.212

.239

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PalmquistRP	1.2	4	4	4	1	2	36
M. MikolasSP	3.2	6	3	3	0	1	66
O. RibaltaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
M. KrookRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
C. BeeterRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16
Team	8.0	12	8	8	2	6	142

Player

1.2

3.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.307	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
C. CarriggCF	.301	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.257	5	2	2	1	1	0	1
W. Castro2B	.263	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.297	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. Karros3B	.258	2	1	0	1	0	1	0
M. MoniakLF	.280	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.296	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.195	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		36	8	12	8	2	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	3.2	7	6	6	1	5	80
B. BernardinoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
V. VodnikRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
J. HergetRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	28
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	10	7	7	2	10	150

Team

WSH

COL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.