Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at WSH?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

46-48

WSH

47-46

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

20,424 attended

Line movement

41 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
48.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at WSH?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

WSH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.6± 2.2medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.3± 1.4high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.2± 2.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.6± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.4± 2.8high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.9± 1.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

WSH

.735

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.319

OBP

.318

▶

.328

4.65

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.40

4.66

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.78

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · WSH 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	1	0	6
WSH	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.234	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.313	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Walker1B	.242	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
C. SmithRF	.223	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
Z. DezenzoUN	.196	2	2	0	0	0	2	1
B. MatthewsCF	.199	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. AllenSS	.241	2	0	1	3	0	1	1
C. VazquezC	.220	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.256	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	6	6	6	1	7	8

Player

.234

.313

.250

.242

.223

.196

.199

.241

.220

.256

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ImaiSP	3.2	4	2	2	3	3	84
S. OkertRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	17
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
B. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
A. SantaRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	19
J. HaderRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	13
Team	9.0	11	3	3	4	10	164

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.270	4	2	2	1	1	1	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.285	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Mead3B	.243	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.276	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
K. RuizC	.279	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Nunez2B	.247	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.223	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.157	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CrewsRF	.225	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.239	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		36	3	11	3	2	4	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AlvarezSP	5.2	4	5	5	5	3	97
J. LawrenceRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
M. KrookRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	23
R. CornelioRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	20
C. PalmquistRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	6	6	6	7	8	163

Team

HOU

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.