Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+14ATH

WSH

49-50

115

ATH

42-56

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

11,138 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

54.0%

open 53.2% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
43.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.41

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+104

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

51.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at ATH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+45.2pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+880DraftKings

edge +45.2pp · implied 16.4%

ATH

no live price

Book	WSH	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+880★	-109	+45.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Foster GriffinWSH
5.0± 3.1high

Hits

Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Tommy WhiteATH
1.1± 1.7medium
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.3± 3.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.8± 1.8high
Jonah HeimATH
1.7± 2.1high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Andres ChaparroWSH
0.6± 1.0high
Jonah HeimATH
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.0± 1.6high
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ATH

.769

OPS

◀

.719

.722

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.321

5.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

4.76

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.40

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

WSH 1 · ATH 15 (by 14)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
ATH	5	1	0	0	0	2	6	1	15

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. TenaDH	.241	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. AbramsSS	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.279	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.248	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Nunez2B	.246	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Vivas3B	.239	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
D. CrewsRF	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead3B	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		30	1	4	1	0	4	11

Player

.275

.280

.241

.274

.279

.248

.246

.239

.208

.255

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. LittellSP	6.0	8	8	8	4	4	96
J. Vivas3B	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	17
M. KranickRP	0.2	3	5	5	2	1	32
C. PalmquistRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7
Team	8.0	13	15	15	7	6	152

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.288	6	3	3	2	1	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.245	4	3	2	2	1	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.258	3	0	1	3	0	2	1
C. CortesRF	.283	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
J. Kuroda-Grauer3B	.415	4	2	1	2	0	1	0
D. Walton2B	.000	1	2	0	0	0	3	0
J. HeimC	.231	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.194	4	1	0	1	0	1	1
J. McNeil2B	.233	5	2	3	2	0	0	0
Team		36	15	13	15	3	7	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	6.1	1	0	0	3	7	82
H. HarrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	31
L. MedinaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	11	136

Team

WSH

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.