New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 10, 2026

NYY

45-27

PregameFri, 6:45 PM EDT

WSH

39-36

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium
Carlos RodonNYY
5.9± 2.3low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.4± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.2± 1.2high
James WoodWSH
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.5± 1.7high
James WoodWSH
2.3± 2.3high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.1± 1.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Zack LittellWSH
2.5± 1.9medium
Cade CavalliWSH
2.3± 1.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

WSH

.775

OPS

◀

.718

.744

.333

OBP

◀

.319

.323

5.28

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.43

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.65

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league