Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 10, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

52-42

WSH

48-47

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

38,085 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

WSH no-vig %

41.4%

open 41.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
49.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+131

Close price

+131

Open no-vig

41.4%

Close no-vig

41.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

WSH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.1± 1.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.4± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.3± 3.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

WSH

.721

OPS

.719

▶

.769

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.328

4.57

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.37

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.76

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · WSH 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5
WSH	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

New York YankeesWashington Nationals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Rosario3B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.275	4	1	1	1	1	1	1
T. GrishamCF	.234	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.260	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.242	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.222	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.153	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.248	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		37	5	13	5	4	3	11

Player

.240

.275

.234

.260

.250

.242

.222

.250

.153

.214

.248

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	5.1	6	1	1	0	6	91
F. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
T. HillRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	8
J. BirdRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
D. BednarRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	27
Team	9.0	8	3	3	0	8	142

Player

5.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.273	5	2	3	1	1	0	0
C. Mead3B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.224	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.170	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.245	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.287	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.279	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. LileLF	.251	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	3	8	2	2	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PalmquistRP	3.0	3	1	1	0	4	45
Z. LittellSP	4.0	5	1	1	0	5	69
T. CosgroveRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	15
C. BeeterRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
M. KrookRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	11
J. LawrenceRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	1	24
Team	9.0	13	5	5	3	11	171

Team

NYY

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

WSH vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.