Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+6PIT

PIT

46-45

115

WSH

46-45

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

19,587 attended

Line movement

29 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

55.5%

open 54.2% · +1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.7%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.6± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.4± 2.8high
Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.9± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

WSH

.754

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.328

5.14

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.40

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.78

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 11 · WSH 5 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	5	2	11
WSH	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.276	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.242	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.282	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.310	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. O'HearnRF	.284	2	2	1	0	0	3	0
N. Gonzales3B	.312	4	2	3	0	0	1	0
E. RodriguezC	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.250	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
J. MangumCF	.306	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
B. CookCF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.159	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.240	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	11	13	11	2	6	10

Player

.276

.242

.282

.310

.284

.312

.260

.250

.306

.161

.159

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	4.0	6	4	4	4	0	86
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
I. MattsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	12
G. SotoRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	2	27
D. SantanaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	10	5	5	5	4	157

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.266	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.282	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. Mead3B	.232	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. AbramsSS	.269	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.232	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. TenaDH	.235	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Vivas3B	.247	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.285	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.163	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	10	5	2	5	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	2.1	6	4	3	2	3	63
E. YeanRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	28
P. PoulinRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	14
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
B. LordRP	1.1	4	5	5	1	0	50
J. LawrenceRP	1.2	2	2	2	1	2	25
Team	9.0	13	11	10	6	10	193

Team

PIT

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.