Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 6, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

HOU

45-48

1112

WSH

47-45

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

11,092 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

WSH no-vig %

50.9%

open 50.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
49.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.6± 2.2medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.3± 1.4high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.2± 2.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.6± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.4± 2.8high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.9± 1.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

WSH

.735

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.319

OBP

.318

▶

.328

4.65

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.40

4.66

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.78

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

HOU 11 · WSH 12 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	3	2	0	0	1	0	4	0	11
WSH	1	0	5	0	6	0	0	0	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.235	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.318	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. Paredes3B	.251	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.240	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.190	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. SmithRF	.225	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
Y. DiazC	.242	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.256	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.197	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
Team		37	11	12	10	3	3	6

Player

.235

.318

.251

.240

.190

.225

.242

.256

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	4.1	9	10	7	2	3	83
A. BlubaughRP	1.2	3	2	2	0	3	33
N. PearsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
Team	8.0	13	12	9	3	9	148

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.268	2	3	1	4	1	3	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.281	5	1	1	1	0	0	3
C. Mead3B	.240	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.274	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.226	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.225	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. MillasC	.188	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. Nunez2B	.243	4	2	3	0	0	0	1
Team		36	12	13	12	3	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MikolasSP	6.0	9	7	7	2	3	99
C. HenryRP	1.2	3	4	4	1	2	44
C. BeeterRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	12	11	11	3	6	155

Team

HOU

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.