MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

WSH

39-35

PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDT

BAL

34-40

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

97 total idx

Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Foster Griffin

SP · #22

7-2

W-L

3.32

ERA

1.11

WHIP

84.0

Last 3 starts

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER6 K

@SF-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

@ARIW(7-2)5.0 IP1 ER4 K

Home starter

Brandon Young

SP · #63

5-2

W-L

3.18

ERA

1.25

WHIP

62.1

Last 3 starts

@SEAL(5-2)6.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsSEAW(5-1)7.0 IP0 ER5 K

@TORW(4-1)6.1 IP3 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesBAL wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.6± 2.1medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.0high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.2high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.3± 2.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.5high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.8high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.0± 1.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

BAL

.746

OPS

◀

.717

.723

.323

OBP

.319

.322

5.40

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.65

4.67

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.57

1.39

WHIP

1.31

1.40

7.7

K / 9

8.5

7.7

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.