Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BAL?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 27, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

42-42

BAL

39-45

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

29,616 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

52.7%

open 51.1% · +1.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.4%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
40.4%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.1%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.2%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.62

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at BAL?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +18.8pp · implied 47.4%

BAL

no live price

Book	WSH	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-128	+18.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high
Brandon YoungBAL
5.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.3± 3.2high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

BAL

.769

OPS

◀

.719

.711

.328

OBP

◀

.318

.320

5.37

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

4.76

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.26

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.35

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 4 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
WSH	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	4
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.273	5	1	4	1	1	0	0
J. TenaDH	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.279	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
D. CrewsRF	.223	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
D. LileLF	.252	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.265	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.237	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. MillasC	.186	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.228	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead3B	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		43	4	13	4	1	3	14

Player

.257

.273

.221

.279

.223

.252

.265

.237

.186

.228

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	7.0	3	1	0	2	9	112
P. PoulinRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11
O. RibaltaRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	12
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15
Team	10.0	7	3	2	3	12	170

Player

F. GriffinSP

7.0

112

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

170

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. HendersonSS	.223	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.252	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
C. Mayo3B	.193	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. O'NeillRF	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.304	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jackson2B	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. TrompC	.667	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.254	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Holliday2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	7	3	0	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	5.0	7	2	2	2	8	93
R. GarciaRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	18
K. AkinRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	35
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	21
Team	10.0	13	4	2	3	14	181

Team

WSH

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.