Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BAL?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

PHI

57-53

BAL

54-56

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

31,857 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.3%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.35

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

46.7%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BAL?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.8pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-139DraftKings

edge +5.8pp · implied 54.6%

BAL

no live price

Book	PHI	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-139★	+107	+5.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.9± 1.9low
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

BAL

.706

OPS

.720

.710

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.17

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PHI 4 · BAL 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Philadelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.248	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.251	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
B. Harper1B	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.277	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.226	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
B. Stott2B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. HillCF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	6	4	2	3	7

Player

.248

.251

.252

.223

.277

.226

.252

.167

.257

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	6.0	3	2	2	3	6	82
O. KerkeringRP	0.2	2	4	4	1	2	27
T. MayzaRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	12
C. ShugartRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
Team	8.0	6	6	6	6	9	133

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

133

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.243	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.252	3	2	2	2	1	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.219	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.247	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
L. TaverasCF	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Holliday2B	.261	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Mayo3B	.202	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. CowserCF	.206	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
Y. PozoC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.324	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
Team		28	6	6	6	1	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	5.2	5	4	4	2	5	94
J. WalkerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17
A. NunezRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	17
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	6	4	4	3	7	155

Team

PHI

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.