New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

54-42

WSH

48-49

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

33,699 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

50.6%

open 49.0% · +1.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
49.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.8pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+185DraftKings

edge +16.8pp · implied 33.0%

WSH

no live price

Book	NYY	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+185★	-248	+16.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.7high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.1± 1.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.4± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.3± 3.2high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

WSH

.721

OPS

.719

▶

.769

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.328

4.57

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.37

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.76

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · WSH 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	5
WSH	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.236	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Rice1B	.279	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
J. DominguezRF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.254	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.223	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.155	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. SchuemannLF	.241	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. SanchezC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.258	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Rosario3B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	8	5	0	3	8

Player

.236

.279

.235

.254

.223

.250

.214

.155

.241

.250

.258

.238

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	5.0	4	1	1	2	2	83
T. HillRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11
A. ChivilliRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	17
R. YarbroughRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	8
P. BlackburnRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
Team	9.0	6	3	2	3	6	140

Player

5.0

0.2

1.0

0.1

2.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.279	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.284	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Ortiz1B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. LileLF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.241	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead3B	.247	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.242	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	2	2	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	5	85
A. AlvarezSP	2.0	4	3	3	1	2	40
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	8	5	5	3	8	141

Team

NYY

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.