Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 3, 2026

FINAL+4WSH

PIT

44-45

WSH

46-43

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

30,331 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

56.3%

open 54.2% · +2.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.5%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.07

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.6pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+553DraftKings

edge +28.6pp · implied 14.4%

WSH

no live price

Book	PIT	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+553★	-1020	+28.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.7high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.6± 3.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.4± 2.8high
Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.9± 1.3high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.8± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

WSH

.754

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.328

5.14

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.40

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.78

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

PIT 5 · WSH 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
WSH	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.273	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
B. Lowe2B	.243	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.282	5	2	2	2	1	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.339	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.280	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.303	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MangumCF	.312	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.260	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. TrioloSS	.238	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		40	5	13	5	1	3	7

Player

.273

.243

.282

.339

.280

.303

.312

.260

.238

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	6.0	8	5	5	0	1	83
I. MattsonRP	1.1	3	4	4	1	1	37
T. CallihanLF	0.2	1	0	0	2	0	21
Team	8.0	12	9	9	3	2	141

Player

M. KellerSP

6.0

I. MattsonRP

1.1

T. CallihanLF

0.2

Team

8.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.267	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.283	4	2	2	3	2	1	0
J. TenaDH	.224	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.273	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.230	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. LileLF	.256	4	2	3	4	2	0	0
K. RuizC	.279	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.252	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. Nunez2B	.237	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
Team		36	9	12	9	5	3	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	5.0	4	1	1	1	2	83
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
J. LawrenceRP	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	26
C. BeeterRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Z. KentRP	2.0	7	4	4	0	1	41
Team	9.0	13	5	5	3	7	176

Team

PIT

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

WSH vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.