Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 30, 2026

FINAL+8PHI

PIT

43-43

PHI

48-38

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

41,710 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

PHI no-vig %

66.7%

open 63.6% · +3.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
62.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.9%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.5%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.6pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+492DraftKings

edge +21.6pp · implied 15.9%

PHI

no live price

Book	PIT	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+492★	-850	+21.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.5± 0.5high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.2± 1.0low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Trea TurnerPHI
2.3± 3.4high
Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 2.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.9± 1.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.6± 0.7high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

PHI

.754

OPS

◀

.720

.702

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.303

5.14

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

4.24

1.32

WHIP

1.31

9.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PIT 0 · PHI 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	3	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. ValdezRF	.313	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Gonzales3B	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. TrioloSS	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. CookCF	.167	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.147	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.288	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	0	5	0	0	3	13

Player

.271

.313

.282

.200

.294

.270

.234

.167

.147

.288

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	6.1	7	5	5	2	6	97
I. MattsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
B. BidoisRP	0.2	4	3	3	1	2	31
T. CallihanLF	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	8.0	12	8	8	3	8	138

Player

6.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.237	5	2	2	3	1	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.256	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.275	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.317	5	0	0	1	0	0	2
A. Bohm3B	.222	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.241	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.204	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.132	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. CrawfordCF	.256	3	1	3	3	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.303	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	8	12	8	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	7.0	3	0	0	2	9	92
J. BowlanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	26
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	5	0	0	3	13	138

Team

PIT

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.