Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+1PIT

MIL

59-35

PIT

48-47

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

22,484 attended

Line movement

69 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.3%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.6%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.7high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.5± 0.5high
Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 2.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.1± 1.9high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.9± 1.2high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Luis LaraMIL
0.7± 1.5medium
Christian YelichMIL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.1± 2.3high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

PIT

.739

OPS

.720

▶

.755

.338

OBP

.318

.336

5.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.15

3.50

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.29

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

MIL 6 · PIT 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	2	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	6
PIT	2	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.242	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. MitchellCF	.275	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
B. Turang2B	.266	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
W. ContrerasC	.283	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.269	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
L. LaraRF	.273	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. PrattSS	.271	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.240	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.317	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	9	6	2	5	8

Player

.242

.275

.266

.283

.269

.273

.271

.240

.218

.283

.317

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SproatSP	3.0	2	3	2	2	3	83
C. YohoRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	25
C. PatrickRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
A. AshbyRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	3	24
B. WilsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	7	7	6	3	9	158

Player

3.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.311	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.278	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.314	4	2	3	6	2	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Gonzales3B	.310	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. CallihanLF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.157	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
B. CookCF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	7	7	6	2	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. AshcraftSP	5.0	5	5	5	2	6	98
C. MlodzinskiRP	3.0	3	1	1	2	2	57
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20
Team	9.0	9	6	6	5	8	175

Team

MIL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.