Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+9PIT

MIL

59-37

514

PIT

50-47

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

34,087 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 6.5 · +2.0

PIT no-vig %

54.0%

open 44.9% · +9.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.8%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+9.14

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

54.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

PIT vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.0high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.3± 0.8high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 0.6high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 2.2high
Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.8high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Luis LaraMIL
0.7± 1.5medium
Cooper PrattMIL
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

PIT

.736

OPS

.719

▶

.751

.337

OBP

.318

.335

5.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

3.48

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.31

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

MIL 5 · PIT 14 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	5
PIT	0	4	0	10	0	0	0	0	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.243	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.284	5	2	2	1	0	0	2
B. Turang2B	.266	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. Bauers1B	.268	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. SanchezC	.220	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
G. MitchellCF	.274	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.225	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. LaraRF	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Vaughn1B	.311	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	8	5	1	4	8

Player

.243

.284

.266

.268

.220

.274

.236

.225

.000

.286

.311

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	3.0	8	7	7	0	3	58
J. KoenigRP	0.0	2	5	5	2	0	21
G. AndersonRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	30
C. YohoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
B. WilsonRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	38
Team	8.0	15	14	14	3	10	168

Player

3.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

3.0

Team

8.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.310	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
B. Lowe2B	.246	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.283	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.309	4	2	1	1	0	1	2
R. O'HearnRF	.288	2	2	2	2	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.308	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.205	5	2	2	2	1	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.233	5	1	3	2	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.166	4	3	2	3	1	0	1
T. CallihanLF	.244	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. CookCF	.171	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	14	15	14	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	5.1	3	2	2	1	7	82
I. MattsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	18
A. KellySP	2.0	4	3	3	1	0	50
B. EisertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
Team	9.0	8	5	5	4	8	160

Team

MIL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.