Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+4PHI

PIT

43-44

610

PHI

49-38

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

41,766 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.1% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
61.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.4%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.27

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.4pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+533DraftKings

edge +23.4pp · implied 14.8%

PHI

no live price

Book	PIT	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+533★	-970	+23.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.9± 3.2medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.5± 0.5high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
1.2± 1.0low
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Trea TurnerPHI
2.3± 3.4high
Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 2.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.9± 1.2high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.4high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.6± 0.7high
Bryson StottPHI
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 1.8high
Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

PHI

.754

OPS

◀

.720

.702

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.303

5.14

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

4.24

1.32

WHIP

1.31

9.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PIT 6 · PHI 10 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	6
PHI	0	5	1	2	0	0	0	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GriffinSS	.269	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.280	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
E. ValdezRF	.302	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.286	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.300	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
J. MangumCF	.302	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
T. CallihanLF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. DavisC	.150	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.238	2	0	1	3	0	0	1
Team		39	6	12	6	1	3	13

Player

.269

.240

.280

.302

.286

.300

.302

.237

.150

.238

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	4.0	6	8	7	2	5	81
C. SandersRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	2	44
Y. RamirezRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	4	37
D. SantanaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	15
Team	8.0	11	10	9	5	13	177

Player

4.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

177

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.239	5	2	2	3	1	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.252	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. Harper1B	.275	4	0	1	2	0	1	3
B. MarshLF	.319	4	2	2	1	1	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.223	4	2	1	2	1	0	2
B. Stott2B	.244	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.201	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.171	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
J. CrawfordCF	.256	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.303	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	10	11	8	3	5	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	4.2	9	4	4	1	10	104
K. BackhusRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	18
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	27
O. KerkeringRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	15
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	13	178

Team

PIT

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PHI vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.