Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at PIT?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+8PIT

ATL

52-38

412

PIT

47-45

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

20,281 attended

Line movement

39 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PIT no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.7%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at PIT?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

PIT vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

PIT

.732

OPS

.720

▶

.754

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.336

4.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.14

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

ATL 4 · PIT 12 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
PIT	4	0	3	0	0	3	1	1	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.308	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
O. Albies2B	.273	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.273	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.253	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. DubonLF	.276	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.267	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.212	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.226	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. FarmerDH	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.136	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AzocarRF	.353	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	11	4	0	1	6

Player

.308

.273

.273

.253

.276

.267

.212

.226

.211

.267

.136

.353

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. WaldrepSP	3.1	6	7	7	5	2	84
C. ThomasRP	3.2	5	4	4	1	2	60
J. MateoSS	1.0	3	1	1	1	0	20
Team	8.0	14	12	12	7	4	164

Player

H. WaldrepSP

3.1

C. ThomasRP

3.2

J. MateoSS

1.0

Team

8.0

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.305	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.247	5	2	3	1	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.281	1	2	0	0	0	3	0
E. ValdezRF	.311	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
R. O'HearnRF	.293	5	3	4	10	3	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.314	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.261	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.240	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
H. DavisC	.155	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BranniganUN	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookCF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	12	14	12	3	7	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	6.0	8	2	2	1	4	95
C. MlodzinskiRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	24
H. StrattonRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	19
Team	9.0	11	4	4	1	6	138

Team

ATL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.