Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 18, 2026

FINAL+6PIT

PIT

51-47

CLE

51-47

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

27,989 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

53.2%

open 54.2% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
61.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.7%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.5pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

PIT

no live price

CLE

★ best

-131DraftKings

edge +7.5pp · implied 54.2%

Book	PIT	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-131★	+7.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Steven KwanCLE
1.6± 1.0high
Jake MangumPIT
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CLE

.754

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.14

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.79

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

9.3

K / 9

8.5

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 7 · CLE 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	7
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.303	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.249	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.285	4	2	2	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.306	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.285	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.310	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
T. CallihanLF	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. GonzalezSS	.400	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
H. DavisC	.168	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. CookCF	.171	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	11	6	3	0	14

Player

.303

.249

.285

.306

.285

.310

.244

.400

.168

.171

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesSP	5.0	3	1	1	1	9	74
C. MlodzinskiRP	3.0	2	0	0	0	2	41
I. MattsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
Team	9.0	6	1	1	1	13	135

Player

J. JonesSP

5.0

C. MlodzinskiRP

3.0

I. MattsonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.238	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Hoskins1B	.179	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Arias3B	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. BaileyC	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. KwanLF	.230	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
Team		33	1	6	1	0	1	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	6.0	7	5	5	0	11	84
M. FestaRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	3	28
C. HeuerRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	11	7	7	0	14	130

Team

PIT

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CLE vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.