Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYY?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

PIT

53-49

NYY

56-45

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

43,290 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

NYY no-vig %

59.8%

open 59.1% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
57.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.6%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+134

Close price

+141

Open no-vig

40.9%

Close no-vig

39.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NYY?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NYY vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.1high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.9high
Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.6± 1.2high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.5± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

NYY

.749

OPS

◀

.720

.724

.335

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 5 · NYY 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	2	5
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.303	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.278	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.295	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. O'HearnRF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Gonzales3B	.311	4	3	2	1	1	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.313	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
H. DavisC	.164	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. CallihanLF	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Flores Jr.C	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.208	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookCF	.220	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.246	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		37	5	7	5	2	3	17

Player

.303

.245

.278

.295

.278

.311

.313

.164

.235

.333

.208

.220

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	6	75
C. MlodzinskiRP	2.2	3	3	3	2	3	50
M. MontgomeryRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	19
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	10.0	6	3	3	5	12	160

Player

5.0

2.2

1.1

1.0

Team

10.0

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.227	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Rice1B	.280	5	1	1	3	1	0	3
S. JonesCF	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	1	3
J. DominguezRF	.230	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.224	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.217	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.163	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. SanchezC	.229	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.258	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	6	3	1	5	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. ColeSP	7.0	4	3	3	0	11	93
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
D. BednarRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
F. CruzRP	0.1	2	2	1	2	0	24
K. CastroRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	10.0	7	5	4	3	17	163

Team

PIT

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYY vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.