Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 22, 2026

PIT

38-37

PregameWed, 1:35 PM EDT

NYY

45-28

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.4± 0.7high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.3± 1.1high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.5± 1.5high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.5± 3.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.1± 1.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.8± 1.0high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.6± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

NYY

.745

OPS

.718

▶

.774

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.332

5.05

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.22

4.20

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.30

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league