Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 8, 2026

FINAL+3ATL

ATL

53-38

PIT

47-46

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

20,062 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PIT no-vig %

52.7%

open 52.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.8%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.8%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.4± 0.7high
Brandon LowePIT
1.3± 1.2high
Jake MangumPIT
1.3± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.1high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.3± 2.2high
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

PIT

.732

OPS

.720

▶

.754

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.336

4.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.14

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 3 · PIT 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.307	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
O. Albies2B	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. BaldwinC	.253	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
M. DubonLF	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.210	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.228	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.160	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. MateoSS	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	3	5	3	1	0	13

Player

.307

.273

.270

.253

.273

.210

.228

.160

.242

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	5.0	3	0	0	1	5	90
D. FuentesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
D. DoddRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	4	0	0	2	11	147

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.300	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.295	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. O'HearnRF	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.311	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. OzunaDH	.204	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. TrioloSS	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.153	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	4	0	0	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesSP	6.0	0	0	0	0	8	77
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
D. SantanaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	16
I. MattsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
Team	9.0	5	3	3	0	13	121

Team

ATL

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.