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Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
CHW
CHW
38-34
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDT
CLE
CLE
39-35
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.5%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE7.0± 3.5low
- Davis MartinCHW6.2± 3.1low
- Parker MessickCLE5.8± 2.3low
Hits
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.1± 0.9high
- Miguel VargasCHW1.0± 0.8high
- Sam AntonacciCHW1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Braden MontgomeryCHW1.7± 3.0low
- Tristan PetersCHW1.7± 1.9high
- Andrew BenintendiCHW1.6± 2.0high
RBIs
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.6low
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.6± 0.7high
- Tristan PetersCHW0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Anthony KayCHW2.5± 3.4low
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.5± 2.9low
- Joey CantilloCLE2.5± 2.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
CLE
.736
OPS
◀
.718
.682
.323
OBP
◀
.319
.314
4.72
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.97
4.47
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.81
1.34
WHIP
1.31
▶1.26
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.2
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant