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FINAL+1CLE
CHW
45-42
34
CLE
47-42
Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
33,646 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
CLE spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 9.0 · -0.5
CLE no-vig %
55.3%
open 54.2% · +1.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Logged before first pitch · graded in public
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.6%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
60.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.8%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.28 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+1.06
CLV pp
Open price
-131
Close price
-137
Open no-vig
54.2%
Close no-vig
55.3%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Logged before tip · graded in public
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at CLE?
- The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
- How is the pick graded?
- In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.
Player projections
CLE vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 122 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE7.9± 3.0high
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.0high
- Joey CantilloCLE6.2± 2.1high
Hits
- Steven KwanCLE1.3± 1.0high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW1.1± 0.8high
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.9± 1.0high
Total bases
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.3± 2.7high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.7± 1.8high
- Steven KwanCLE1.6± 1.0high
RBIs
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.8± 1.9high
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.6± 0.7high
- Chase MeidrothCHW0.6± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Noah SchultzCHW3.4± 2.6low
- Davis MartinCHW2.8± 2.9high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE2.7± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
CLE
.722
OPS
◀
.720
.680
.316
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.75
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.94
4.03
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.79
1.29
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CLE wins
CHW 3 · CLE 4 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CLE +10pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
