Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 5, 2026

FINAL+1CHW

CHW

47-42

CLE

47-44

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

22,616 attended

Line movement

50 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

56.9%

open 59.3% · -2.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.7%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 124 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7± 1.7high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.7± 1.4high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Luis CastilloCHW
2.5± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CLE

.724

OPS

◀

.719

.680

.316

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.95

4.00

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.76

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 7 · CLE 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	2	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
CLE	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.284	5	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. Vargas3B	.247	2	2	1	0	0	3	0
K. TeelC	.220	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.240	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.224	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.233	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Meidroth2B	.268	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. PetersCF	.295	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.253	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.290	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. AcunaSS	.221	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	9	7	3	6	4

Player

.284

.247

.220

.240

.224

.233

.268

.295

.253

.290

.221

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MurphyRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	1	31
E. FeddeSP	5.1	8	3	2	1	4	89
T. RichardsRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22
S. NewcombRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	22
Team	9.0	12	6	5	3	9	164

Player

0.2

5.1

1.1

1.2

Team

9.0

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.249	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.246	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.272	5	2	2	2	1	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.225	3	2	0	0	0	1	0
G. Arias3B	.221	5	1	2	3	1	0	3
C. IngleC	.095	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
D. SchneemannCF	.217	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.217	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. KwanLF	.221	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Hoskins1B	.177	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.276	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. HedgesC	.281	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	12	6	2	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	4.0	6	6	6	1	1	62
F. AlemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
C. HoldermanRP	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	16
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	1	0	0	2	0	20
T. HerrinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	9	7	7	6	4	160

Team

CHW

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.