Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at MIA?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+3CLE

CLE

51-46

MIA

52-45

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

17,147 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

MIA no-vig %

49.0%

open 50.4% · -1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.42

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at MIA?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.5pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

CLE

no live price

MIA

★ best

+181DraftKings

edge +12.5pp · implied 33.4%

Book	CLE	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	-243	+181★	+12.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.7± 1.4high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

MIA

.680

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.325

3.95

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.00

1.26

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 5 · MIA 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	5
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.238	3	2	0	0	0	1	1
B. RocchioSS	.276	5	2	2	2	1	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.278	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.215	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. WatsonRF	.221	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. HalpinCF	.180	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
P. BaileyC	.219	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. KwanLF	.225	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
Team		36	5	11	5	2	3	6

Player

.238

.276

.278

.215

.221

.239

.180

.219

.225

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	6	1	1	2	9	85
F. AlemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
C. SmithRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	16
Team	9.0	8	2	2	2	14	140

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.334	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
H. HernandezLF	.236	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
L. HicksC	.290	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.303	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.272	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.215	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Stowers1B	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.197	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. ConineRF	.266	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. MackC	.245	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	8	2	1	2	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	26
C. FaucherRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	29
T. ZuberRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	18
M. PetersenRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	26
C. GibsonRP	2.0	0	1	0	1	1	26
L. BacharRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	3	20
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	18
Team	9.0	11	5	4	3	6	163

Team

CLE

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.