Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

CHW

46-42

CLE

47-43

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

31,727 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

57.2%

open 58.3% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.8%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.2%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.88

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.7pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

CLE

★ best

+115DraftKings

edge +16.7pp · implied 43.7%

Book	CHW	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-150	+115★	+16.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 122 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.2± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high
Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.7± 1.8high
Steven KwanCLE
1.6± 1.0high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high
Chase MeidrothCHW
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CLE

.722

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.316

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.75

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.03

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.79

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 3 · CLE 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3
CLE	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Vargas3B	.245	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
R. GrichukDH	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.267	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.221	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. PerezCF	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. AcunaSS	.221	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.291	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
D. RomoC	.140	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
K. TeelC	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. AntonacciLF	.290	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	9	3	1	4	7

Player

.245

.286

.267

.221

.190

.244

.221

.291

.140

.222

.290

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	6.0	7	1	1	0	11	95
B. EisertRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
G. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	14	135

Player

S. BurkeSP

6.0

B. EisertRP

2.0

G. TaylorRP

1.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
K. Manzardo1B	.228	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. RocchioSS	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. IngleC	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SchneemannCF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.281	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
S. KwanLF	.219	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.178	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. FryRF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	1	1	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	5.0	5	1	1	3	3	100
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
T. HerrinRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15
M. FestaRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	19
Team	9.0	9	3	3	4	7	157

Team

CHW

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

CLE vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.