Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+5CLE

TEX

44-43

CLE

45-42

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

20,141 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.27

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-123

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

52.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+28.1pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

+700DraftKings

edge +28.1pp · implied 11.7%

CLE

no live price

Book	TEX	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	+700★	-1560	+28.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 122 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 1.7high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.3high
Chase DeLauterCLE
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.2± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 2.0high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.1high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high

Earned runs

MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

CLE

.721

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.32

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.79

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

TEX 4 · CLE 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	4
CLE	0	5	0	0	0	0	2	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Foscue2B	.275	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Jung3B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
E. DuranSS	.273	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. HigashiokaC	.220	1	1	0	1	0	2	0
C. CauleyCF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.247	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.318	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.330	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Smith2B	.223	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	1	6	8

Player

.275

.294

.273

.250

.220

.111

.247

.318

.330

.240

.223

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	5.0	7	5	5	1	7	92
C. WinnRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	12
W. SantosSP	2.0	2	2	2	1	1	33
Team	8.0	11	9	9	2	8	137

Player

M. GoreSP

5.0

C. WinnRP

1.0

W. SantosSP

2.0

Team

8.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FryRF	.214	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.275	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Manzardo1B	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.209	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.286	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. HedgesC	.270	3	2	1	3	1	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.216	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
S. KwanLF	.214	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	9	11	7	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	3	2	2	5	4	93
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	18
H. GaddisRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	15
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	8	4	4	6	8	154

Team

TEX

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CLE vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.