Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 30, 2026

FINAL+2TEX

TEX

44-42

CLE

44-42

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

21,674 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

48.5%

open 50.4% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.7%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.61

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

TEX

no live price

CLE

★ best

-118DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 50.8%

Book	TEX	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-118★	+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 122 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.9± 3.0high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.0± 0.9high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.1± 2.5high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.0± 1.9high
Corey SeagerTEX
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Kyle ManzardoCLE
0.6± 1.4high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.6± 0.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

MacKenzie GoreTEX
3.2± 1.9high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

CLE

.721

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.32

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.79

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.27

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 4 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	4
CLE	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.241	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. Jung3B	.297	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.266	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. CarterCF	.178	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. OsunaLF	.254	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.329	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CauleyCF	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	6	3	2	0	5

Player

.241

.297

.182

.253

.266

.178

.254

.300

.329

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	7.0	4	2	2	0	9	96
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	5	2	2	0	12	119

Player

J. deGromSP

7.0

P. GrayRP

1.0

J. LatzRP

1.0

Team

9.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Bazzana2B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.269	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.231	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. WatsonRF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. IngleC	.091	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. SchneemannCF	.219	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
G. Arias3B	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. BaileyC	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KwanLF	.212	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	5	2	1	0	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	7.0	5	3	2	0	2	91
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	17
D. EspinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	6	4	3	0	5	124

Team

TEX

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.