Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 10, 2026

FINAL+6ARI

ARI

47-47

LAD

61-34

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

47,727 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

64.3%

open 64.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.9%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.3%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Justin WrobleskiLAD
5.6± 3.5medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.8± 0.9high
James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.3± 1.4high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.9± 2.0high
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

LAD

.705

OPS

.719

▶

.771

.313

OBP

.318

▶

.340

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.21

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.64

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.14

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 9 · LAD 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	2	0	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	9
LAD	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.262	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.246	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.258	4	2	0	0	0	1	1
G. MorenoC	.296	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.216	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.255	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
N. Arenado3B	.242	2	2	0	0	0	3	2
R. WaldschmidtCF	.254	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TawaLF	.187	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.189	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	9	9	7	1	5	12

Player

.262

.246

.258

.296

.216

.255

.242

.254

.187

.189

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RodriguezSP	6.0	7	2	2	1	5	87
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
D. JamesonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	13
Team	9.0	9	3	3	1	9	134

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

134

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.290	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
A. PagesCF	.269	4	1	3	1	1	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.293	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BettsSS	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.350	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. HernándezLF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Rojas2B	.290	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.252	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.236	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AlfonzoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	9	3	2	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. HurtRP	1.2	3	2	2	1	1	36
W. KleinRP	1.2	0	1	1	2	2	31
B. StewartRP	1.0	1	3	2	1	2	29
E. HenriquezRP	1.2	1	2	0	1	2	29
J. DreyerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
E. PhillipsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	22
A. VesiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	9	9	6	5	12	180

Team

ARI

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.