Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at LAD?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 11, 2026

FINAL+7ARI

ARI

48-47

LAD

61-35

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

48,102 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

LAD no-vig %

73.0%

open 70.7% · +2.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.5%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.37

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+226

Close price

+255

Open no-vig

29.3%

Close no-vig

27.0%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at LAD?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+41.7pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

LAD

★ best

+1080DraftKings

edge +41.7pp · implied 23.1%

Book	ARI	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+255	+1080★	+41.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.4± 2.6high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.1± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

LAD

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.340

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.18

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.70

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 9 · LAD 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	5	1	2	0	9
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.259	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.244	3	2	0	0	0	1	0
C. CarrollRF	.255	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. MorenoC	.300	3	2	2	0	0	2	1
M. KeplerLF	.200	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.213	5	1	3	2	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.243	3	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. McCannC	.227	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
T. TroyLF	.223	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Vargas1B	.255	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.186	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	9	9	9	3	6	8

Player

.259

.244

.255

.300

.200

.213

.243

.227

.223

.255

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	5.1	6	2	2	0	2	77
B. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
J. MorilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
P. AbnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	6	2	2	0	6	113

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

113

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.290	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.271	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.293	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.239	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Edman2B	.349	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. CallLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AlfonzoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Rojas2B	.290	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	0	0	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	6.0	5	6	6	4	6	103
L. KnackSP	3.0	4	3	3	2	2	60
Team	9.0	9	9	9	6	8	163

Team

ARI

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.