Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 12, 2026

ARI

39-36

PregameSun, 4:10 PM EDT

LAD

49-27

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesLAD win series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
2.2± 1.6high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.9± 1.7high
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan WardLAD
0.8± 1.5medium

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

LAD

.694

OPS

.719

▶

.787

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.346

4.28

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.29

4.16

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.35

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.08

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.