Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 12, 2026

FINAL+2ARI

ARI

49-47

LAD

61-36

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

47,967 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAD no-vig %

67.5%

open 64.3% · +3.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
65.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.2pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+394DraftKings

edge +16.2pp · implied 19.0%

LAD

no live price

Book	ARI	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+394★	-620	+16.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.7medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.7± 0.9high
James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.4± 2.6high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.4high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.1± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

LAD

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.772

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.340

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.18

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.70

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 5 · LAD 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	5
LAD	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.241	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CarrollRF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.301	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.258	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.243	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.214	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.250	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
J. BarrosaCF	.186	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	5	4	1	3	9

Player

.256

.241

.252

.301

.211

.258

.243

.214

.250

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrattSP	3.0	3	3	3	3	0	58
T. ClarkeRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	20
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
K. GinkelRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
J. MorilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	3	3	3	5	6	139

Player

3.0

1.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.293	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.270	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
F. Freeman1B	.290	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.343	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HernándezLF	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
M. Muncy3B	.259	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. AlfonzoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.254	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	3	3	3	1	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. SheehanSP	5.1	3	3	2	1	7	101
E. HenriquezRP	0.2	1	1	0	1	0	15
B. StewartRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
T. ScottRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
E. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	19
Team	9.0	5	5	3	3	9	161

Team

ARI

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.