Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 9, 2026

FINAL+2ARI

ARI

46-47

Petco Park · San Diego, California

39,270 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

SD no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.7%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
4.6± 1.6high
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3± 2.2high
Kohl DrakeARI
4.0± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ty FranceSD
1.4± 0.8high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 1.1high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Griffin CanningSD
2.7± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.705

OPS

◀

.719

.696

.313

OBP

.318

.312

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.21

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.14

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · SD 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.246	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.261	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
G. MorenoC	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.188	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.243	4	1	1	1	1	0	3
T. TroyLF	.225	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. TawaLF	.155	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	8	2	1	2	10

Player

.263

.246

.261

.293

.188

.222

.243

.225

.155

.182

.257

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	7.0	3	1	1	3	6	94
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	9	120

Player

M. KellySP

7.0

K. GinkelRP

1.0

P. SewaldRP

1.0

Team

9.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.225	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Machado3B	.193	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.228	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.313	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. AndujarDH	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		27	1	3	1	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CanningSP	4.2	7	2	2	0	5	74
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	28
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	8	3	3	2	10	148

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.