Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at ARI?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 4, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

MIL

54-33

ARI

44-44

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

33,154 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
45.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.2%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.26

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at ARI?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.3pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

+310DraftKings

edge +35.3pp · implied 22.9%

ARI

no live price

Book	MIL	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+310★	-456	+35.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.5± 2.8high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.0± 2.8low
Robert GasserMIL
5.0± 1.7low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Brice TurangMIL
1.3± 1.1high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.3high
Brice TurangMIL
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.7high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.0± 2.7medium
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

ARI

.737

OPS

◀

.720

.709

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.314

5.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.48

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

MIL 3 · ARI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3
ARI	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.269	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
C. YelichDH	.246	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
J. Bauers1B	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. ContrerasC	.295	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.269	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.328	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. FrelickRF	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PrattSS	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.208	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioLF	.293	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		38	3	12	3	2	2	10

Player

.269

.246

.266

.295

.269

.328

.243

.200

.208

.293

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WoodruffSP	3.2	2	3	3	1	6	61
C. YohoRP	2.2	0	0	0	0	1	27
J. KoenigRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	26
Team	8.0	4	4	4	2	9	114

Player

B. WoodruffSP

3.2

C. YohoRP

2.2

J. KoenigRP

1.2

Team

8.0

114

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarrollRF	.266	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
G. MorenoC	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.185	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.264	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.219	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.219	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.183	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	4	4	4	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	5.0	8	2	2	2	6	92
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
B. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	13
Team	9.0	12	3	3	2	10	146

Team

MIL

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.