Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 7, 2026

FINAL+3SD

ARI

45-46

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,223 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

SD no-vig %

51.8%

open 51.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.4%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-119

Close price

-119

Open no-vig

51.8%

Close no-vig

51.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
4.6± 1.6high
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3± 2.2high
Griffin CanningSD
4.1± 1.6medium

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.0high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.7high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.0± 2.7medium
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Griffin CanningSD
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.709

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.314

OBP

.318

.312

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.21

4.20

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.14

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

ARI 1 · SD 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
SD	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.267	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.243	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. MorenoC	.290	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. KeplerLF	.167	1	0	0	1	0	1	1
N. Arenado3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Smith1B	.149	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.210	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.159	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.221	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	5	1	0	3	8

Player

.267

.243

.263

.290

.167

.236

.149

.210

.159

.221

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	6.0	6	4	4	3	5	96
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	8.0	6	4	4	3	5	119

Player

Z. GallenSP

6.0

K. GinkelRP

1.0

J. LoaisigaRP

1.0

Team

8.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.218	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.188	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Sheets1B	.233	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.183	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.300	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.330	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BowenRF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	4	6	4	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP	5.0	3	1	0	3	4	82
Y. MatsuiRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	15
J. BritoRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	17
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	5	1	0	3	8	141

Team

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.